MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis|981| June 17, 2013
Leap Forward In Iran's Nuclear Program: Plutonium Route At Arak Heavy Water
Reactor Simplifies Path To Attaining Nuclear Weapon
By: A. Savyon and Y. Mansharof*

On June 8, 2013, Iran inaugurated the main nuclear fission container at the
heavy water reactor in Arak. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)
director Fereydoon Abbasi remarked at the event that Tehran had taken "an
important step in the advancement of the project."[1]

In its most recent report, published May 30, 2013, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) noted that Iran has made progress in the construction
and operation of the Arak heavy water reactor despite the demand by the U.N.
Security Council in recent years that this activity be suspended. The report
also stated that Iran has notified the IAEA that it intends to activate the
reactor by the end of 2014 for manufacturing radioactive isotopes for
medical purposes.

This month, the IAEA Board of Governors expressed its criticism of Iran for
failing to construct the Arak reactor in accordance with the IAEA-approved
model; in addition, it noted that since 2006, Iran had failed to supply the
agency with all planning information concerning the reactor, as required by
IAEA regulations.[2] At the same time, Iran is continuing to prevent the
IAEA from inspecting the heavy water reactor, claiming that heavy water is
not a nuclear material that requires supervision – even though this kind of
reactor can produce weapons-grade fissile material via the plutonium route.

Assessment

The installation of the nuclear fission container at the heavy water reactor
in Arak has several ramifications:

It will force the international community to recognize Iran as a nuclear
power, as Tehran continues to adhere to its claim that heavy water is not a
nuclear material that requires supervision and that the IAEA will therefore
not be allowed to inspect its facilities.
With this move, Tehran has decided to break through the deadlock in the
nuclear talks by shifting the focus to the plutonium route and moving the
uranium enrichment route to the back burner.

By stepping up the plutonium route by operating the heavy water reactor at
Arak, Iran aims to eliminate the possibility of a military attack on its
nuclear facilities – because attacking a plutonium reactor that has been
activated and is operating will have, inter alia, very grave environmental
consequences.

What Is The Arak Heavy Water Reactor For?

While Tehran is declaring that the Arak heavy water reactor will be used to
produce isotopes for medical purposes and that it will replace the obsolete
research reactor in Tehran, the Tehran reactor is still in operation and has
not been shut down. Furthermore, Iran has stockpiled enough uranium enriched
to 20% to keep the Tehran reactor operating for years to come.

Why, then, does Iran need two facilities with two different routes – uranium
enrichment in Tehran and plutonium in Arak – to manufacture the same
isotopes, especially when the Arak reactor offers the easiest and most
common way to produce plutonium for a nuclear weapon?

On June 10, 2013, the Iranian website Irannuc.ir, which is close to Iran's
Supreme National Security Council that conducts the nuclear talks vis-à-vis
the international community, published an article exposing Tehran's
intention to focus the nuclear talks on the plutonium route, as opposed to
the uranium-enrichment route that is underway at the Fordo and Natanz
facilities.

The article also mentioned the fact that a heavy water reactor could be the
easiest path to the production of weapons-grade plutonium.

Following are excerpts from the article:

The Arak Reactor "Will Dominate The Talks"

"The installation of the main container at the Arak reactor a few days
before the presidential election indicates that Iran has decided to set a
new atmosphere, new conditions, and a new agenda in advance of the next
round of talks with the P5+1. Diplomats in Tehran are saying that while the
issue of enrichment to a level of 20% at Fordo has been the focus of the
talks so far, it is very likely that during 2013, and especially in early
2014, this issue will be pushed aside, and the issue of Arak itself will
dominate the talks.

"The West has always portrayed Iran's nuclear program as one with military
potential. According to this view, the Arak facility, and especially the
heavy water reactor, is more important than [the facilities in] Fordo and
Natanz, because it could be one of the easiest and most conventional ways of
producing plutonium, which is currently the classic method used worldwide to
produce nuclear weapons.

"Iran has announced that the 40-megawatt heavy water reactor at Arak will
gradually replace the research reactor in Tehran, which is already producing
isotopes required [to combat] hundreds of thousands of types of cancer.
However, taking into account the end of the effective life of this reactor
[in Tehran], it will soon need to be shut down and replaced with another
reactor.

"Although these isotopes have no use other than medical, Iran imported no
isotopes for over 20 years, because of the sanctions. Even so, the West does
not see this issue in this way.

"The closer the Arak reactor comes to completion, the more attention it will
receive from the West; the more attention it receives, the more the issue of
Fordo and [uranium] enrichment to 20% will be pushed aside.

"Some diplomats estimate that the next round of [nuclear] talks with Iran
will not take place before the fall of 2013, and by that time, the Arak
reactor project will have advanced significantly. Thus, it is assumed that
the next time the P5+1 sits down at the negotiating table with Iran, its
priorities will have shifted, and it will have to focus on the [need] to
reach a deal with Iran regarding the Arak reactor project, instead of
discussing Fordo and [uranium] enrichment to 20%.

"Diplomats are assessing that the issue of Arak will soon be added to the
P5+1's official proposals to Iran, and that in order for it to be realistic,
any new proposal – which according to Western diplomats will be presented to
Iran immediately after its [presidential] election – will have to include
the issue of Arak.

"A diplomat in Tehran told [irannuc.ir]: 'Iran will step up the Arak
project, and by doing so will change the course of the talks [with the
P5+1]."[3]
--------------------------------

*A. Savyon is Director of MEMRI's Iranian Media Project; Y. Mansharof is a
Research Fellow at MEMRI.

[1] Fars (Iran), June 9, 2013.
[2] Press TV (Iran), June 6, 2013.
[3] Irannuc.ir, June 10, 2013.

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