The Peace Index – June 2013
(N=601)
(results for adult Israeli Jews polled 1-3.7.2013)
http://www.peaceindex.org/files/The%20Peace%20Index%20Data%20%e2%80%93%20June%202013(1).pdf

1. What is your position on holding peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
1. Strongly in favor 34.2
2. Somewhat in favor 29.3
3. Somewhat opposed 11.6
4. Strongly opposed 20.1
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 4.8

2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians
in the coming years?
1. Strongly believe 9.7
2. Somewhat believe 18.9
3. Somewhat don’t believe 20.9
4. Don’t believe at all 47.8
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 2.7

3. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, as an emissary of President Obama,
is trying to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. In your
opinion, what are the chances that he will succeed in restarting the talks?
1. Very high 4.0
2. Moderately high 18.3
3. Moderately low 40.1
4. Very low 31.2
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 6.3

4. In your opinion, in order to facilitate the resumption of negotiations
with the Palestinians, should Israel or should Israel not show greater
flexibility?
1. I am sure Israel should 13.3
2. I think Israel should 24.0
3. I think Israel should not 16.7
4. I am sure Israel should not 41.3
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 4.7

5. In your opinion, does the Palestinian Authority really want or not
really want to resume the peace negotiations?
1. I am sure it wants to 6.8
2. I think it wants to 19.6
3. I think it does not want to 20.8
4. I am sure it does not want to 46.2
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 6.5

6. Does the Israeli government really want or not really want to resume
the peace negotiations?
1. I am sure it wants to 16.7
2. I think it wants to 40.5
3. I think it does not want to 21.3
4. I am sure it does not want to 15.2
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 6.3

7. In your assessment, to whom is it more important that the peace
negotiations resume—to the Palestinians or to Israel?
1. It is more important to the Palestinians 16.2
2. It is more important to Israel 29.9
3. It is equally important to both sides 38.8
4. It is not important to either side 12.4
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 2.6

8. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently reaffirmed his support for
the two-state solution. However, Member of Knesset Danny Danon of Netanyahu’s
Likud Party claimed that there is strong opposition to this solution in the
party and the government. In your assessment, will Netanyahu succeed or not
succeed in convincing the Likud to support an agreement
based on two states?
1. I am sure he will succeed 14.6
2. I think he will succeed 27.4
3. I think he will not succeed 22.8
4. I am sure he will not succeed 22.2
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 12.9

9. If it turns out that the majority of the Likud opposes a two-state
solution, should or should not Netanyahu leave the party, as Ariel Sharon
did when the Likud opposed a unilateral disengagement from Gaza?
1. I am sure he should leave 18.1
2. I think he should leave 16.3
3. I think he should not leave 20.9
4. I am sure he should not leave 29.4
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 15.3

10. In your opinion, in a scenario in which the Likud opposes an agreement
based on two states, will Netanyahu leave the party?
1. I am sure he will leave 4.1
2. I think he will leave 9.0
3. I think he will not leave 29.7
4. I am sure he will not leave 45.3
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 11.9

11. A year has passed since Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was
elected President of Egypt in democratic elections. At present, there are
again large anti-government demonstrations in Egypt. From Israel’s
standpoint, is it preferable for Morsi’s government to fall or to remain in
power?
1. It would be preferable for his government to fall 39.5
2. It would be preferable for his government to remain in power
23.2
3. It does not make a difference 10.2
4. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 27.1

12. How would you define Israeli-Egyptian relations at present?
1. Very friendly 0.8
2. Moderately friendly 22.2
3. Moderately unfriendly 40.4
4. Not friendly at all 27.6
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 9.1

13. In your opinion, have relations between the two states changed or not
changed since President Mubarak was removed from power?
1. They have not changed 25.6
2. They have changed for the worse 61.4
3. They have changed for the better 4.3
4. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 8.6

14. To what extent are you satisfied or dissatisfied so far with the
performance of the new Israeli government that took office after the 2013
elections?
1. Very satisfied 4.2
2. Moderately satisfied 20.7
3. Not too satisfied 33.5
4. Not satisfied at all 37.2
5. Don’t know / Refuse to answer 4.4

===============
The Peace Index: June 2013

Date Published: 08/07/2013
Survey dates: 01/07/2013 - 03/07/2013
The June Index

Kerry’s chances of success. The overwhelming majority of the Jewish public
in Israel does not tend to believe that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s
efforts to renew the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will bear fruit.
Seventy-one percent see the chances of success as very or moderately low.
The Arab public has exactly the same view, with 72% rating the chances that
Kerry's mission will yield the desired results as moderately or very low.

The degree of flexibility required of Israel. Whether because they see the
chances of Kerry's mission as low or because they have no interest in the
renewal of negotiations, the majority of the Jewish public (58%) does not
think Israel should show greater flexibility in order to facilitate the
resumption of the peace talks. The Arab public holds the opposite opinion,
with an unequivocal majority of 90.5% strongly or moderately agreeing that
Israel should be more flexible in order to facilitate a return to the
negotiating table.

Who wants a renewal of talks? The prevailing view in the Jewish public (67%)
is that the Palestinian Authority does not really want to resume peace
talks, while a majority (57%) thinks that the Israeli government wants to
resume the talks. Here too the Arab public’s outlook is fundamentally
different: 86% of Arab respondents said the Palestinian Authority is
genuinely interested in returning to the negotiating table; as for the
Israeli government, 51% of Arab respondents believe the Israeli government
is genuinely interested in restarting negotiations while 41% think that it
is not.

A cross-check of the Jewish public’s perception of the sincerity of the
Palestinian Authority’s desire to resume peace talks and the question of
whether Israel should show greater flexibility revealed that the
respondents' assessment of the Palestinians’ intentions has a great
influence on their positions on the need for greater flexibility.
Sixty-eight percent of Jews who think the Palestinians sincerely want to
return to the talks think Israel should show greater flexibility; among
those who view the Palestinian intentions as insincere, only 24% think
Israel should show greater flexibility.

To whom is it more important to renew peace talks? The most common view in
the Jewish public (39%) is that resuming peace talks is equally important to
both sides. More respondents, however, think the resumption is more
important to Israel (30%) than to the Palestinians (16%). Twelve percent of
Jewish respondents say renewing the negotiations is not important to either
side. The picture in the Arab public is different: a definite majority of
59% thinks restarting the talks is equally important to both sides, 27.5% of
respondents see it as more important to Israel, and only 11% view returning
to the table as more important to the Palestinians. In other words, both the
Jews and the Arabs think renewing the negotiations is more important to
Israel.

Netanyahu’s chances of convincing his party of the benefit of the two-state
solution. Member of Knesset and Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon recently
asserted that there is strong opposition to the two-state solution in the
Likud and in the government, and hence Prime Minister Netanyahu’s declared
support for this solution has no basis in the party or the government. We
asked: “In your assessment, will Netanyahu succeed or not succeed in
convincing the Likud to support an agreement based on two states?” The
responses show that the Jewish public is almost evenly split between those
who think Netanyahu will not succeed (45%) and those who think he will
(42%).

We went on to ask what Netanyahu should do if most of the Likud opposes a
two-state solution. Should he remain in the party? Or should he leave it, as
Ariel Sharon did when there was opposition in the Likud to his unilateral
disengagement plan? The distribution of responses to this question is less
balanced: 50% of the Jewish public think or are sure that Netanyahu should
remain in his party, while about a third (34%) think that in such a scenario
he should leave it. When we asked whether Netanyahu would or would not leave
the party if the Likud opposes an agreement based on two states, views were
much more divided: a clear-cut majority (75%) affirmed that he would not.

In the Arab public, the prevailing opinion (48%) is that Netanyahu will not
succeed in convincing the Likud to support a two-state solution, with only
35% believing he will succeed at that task. On the question of whether
Netanyahu should leave the Likud if he does not succeed in convincing party
members to support a two-state solution, the distribution of views in the
Arab public was similar to that of the Jewish public—but in the opposite
direction: 49% thought Netanyahu should leave the party while 30% thought
that he should remain. However, on the question of what Netanyahu would
actually do in a situation in which his support for the two-state solution
is rejected by his party, the Arab public’s estimation is very similar to
that of the Jewish public: a clear majority (65%) says that Netanyahu would
stay in the Likud and only 17% expect that he would leave it.

(Dis)satisfaction with the government’s performance. To the question “To
what extent are you satisfied or dissatisfied so far with the performance of
the new government that took office after the 2013 elections?,” 71% of the
Jewish public responded that they are not at all satisfied (37.2%) or not
very satisfied (33.5%), and only about one-fourth answered that they are
moderately (21%) or very satisfied (4%). In the Arab public, 35.5% of
respondents were satisfied, 47% of respondents were dissatisfied, and 17.5%
did not know.

The fall of Morsi's government. The June survey, which was conducted before
the overthrow of Egyptian president Morsi by the army and against the
backdrop of large demonstrations against him, asked whether from Israel’s
standpoint it would be preferable for Morsi’s government, which was elected
democratically, to fall or to remain in power. It appears that the Jewish
public did not devote much thought to this issue; be that as it may, the
inclination was against Morsi's government, with 39.5% preferring that he
fall compared to 23% who thought it would be better for him to remain in
power. Ten percent responded that from Israel’s standpoint it made no
difference whether or not Morsi remained at the helm, and an especially high
rate (27%) did not know. The tendency to prefer Morsi’s overthrow is
consistent with the finding that the widespread view in the Jewish public
before Morsi was toppled was that relations between Israel and Egypt were
totally or moderately unfriendly (68%). In a similar vein, a majority of
Jewish respondents (61%) were of the opinion that since Mubarak’s ouster,
the relations between Egypt and Israel had changed for the worse.

In the Arab public, as in the Jewish, the most common view was that it would
be better from Israel’s standpoint for Morsi’s government to fall (41% held
this view, with 34% responding that it would be preferable for Israel that
Morsi's government remain in power). However, on the question of the quality
of relations between Israel and Egypt under Morsi, the Arab public was very
evenly split: 42% defined the relations as very or moderately friendly, and
41% defined them as moderately or totally unfriendly. Unlike the Jews, the
Arab public’s most frequent answer to the question of whether relations
between the two countries had changed since Mubarak’s overthrow was that
there has been no change at all (42%). At the same time, 33% thought that
relations had changed for the worse and only 13% saw them as improving.

The Negotiations Index for June, 2013
The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's
attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. The monthly Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one
focusing on public support for peace negotiations and the other on the
degree to which the public believes that such talks will actually lead to
peace. The aggregated replies to these two questions are calculated,
combined, and standardized on a scale of 0–100, in which 0 represents total
lack of support for negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to
bear fruit, and 100 represents total support for the process and belief in
its potential. Each month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct
findings, one for the general Israeli population and the other for Jewish
Israelis.

Negotiations Index: General sample: 48.1; Jewish sample: 45.2

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The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. This
month's survey was conducted by telephone on July 1–3 by the Midgam Research
Institute. The survey included 601 respondents, who constitute a
representative national sample of the adult population aged 18 and over. The
survey was conducted in Hebrew, Arabic, and Russian. The maximum measurement
error is ±4.5% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing was done
by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay