Haaretz cooks poll question to show support for deal - while 61%:26% Israelis
oppose deal
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 24 July 20013

The folks at Haaretz needed a poll showing that the public supports a peace
agreement but they had a problem:

The moment that you actually say anything about the agreement, the public is
overwhelmingly opposed.

That's what Maagar - Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute
Ltd., managed by Professor Yitzhak Katz found in a poll of 503 Israelis they
carried out on 22 July for Channel 10
In principle, are you for or against signing a full peace agreement with the
Palestinians on the basis of the 1967 borders, including the exchange of
territory and release of prisoners?
Total: For 29% Against 57% Other replies 14%
and it gets only worse when you spell it out even more:
Are you for or against signing a peace agreement with the Palestinians on
the basis of the 1967 borders, including the evacuation of communities with
the exception of settlement blocs, exchange of territory, Palestinians
recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish People, and release of
Palestinians with "blood on their hands".
Total: For 26% Against 61% Other 13%

So here is the propaganda piece that Haaretz commissioned in a poll carried
out 23 July - by Dialogue under the supervision of statistics professor and
pollster Camil Fuchs of a representative sample of 511 adult Israelis
(including Israeli Arabs). Published in Haaretz on 24 July 2013

Assume that the Prime Minister reaches an agreement with the Palestinians
and brings it to a national referendum, would you support or oppose it?
Support 39% Think support 16% Think oppose 5% Oppose 20% Don’t know 20%

What's the problem with this question?

There are, no doubt, many respondents who were in the "plus column" who
support Netanyahu and were thinking that, in the absence of information
about the deal, that a deal that Netanyahu brings to a national referendum
would have to be radically different than the kind of deal that the talking
heads have been outlining for the last two decades. Take note the huge
"Don't know" response.

The Haaretz poll is meaningless because if and when we reach the point that
there is a national referendum the details of the deal will very much be the
subject of considerable debate.

People aren't going to go blindly to the ballot box.

Sure, if Livni somehow manages to cut a deal with the Palestinians that
involve Palestinian concessions of a magnitude beyond anyone's dreams
(united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty, Jordan Valley, IDF control of
airspace, Israeli control of all entry/exit of all goods and people, Israeli
security access as Israel deems necessary when Israel deems necessary,
continued Israeli control of Machpelah in Hebron, formal end to right of
return, and much much more) then it might be able to pass in a national
referendum.

But that's not a particularly relevant question.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il