Palestinians Doubt U.S. Abilities as Peace Broker
Prisoner release, 1967 boundaries, and settlements top preconditions
by Jihad Fakhreddine
Friday, July 26, 2013
http://bit.ly/14Wl8M9
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163715/palestinians-doubt-abilities-peace-broker.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=plaintextlink&utm_term=Israel

BEIRUT -- Ahead of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's announcement last
week that Israel and the Palestinians have agreed in principle to resume
peace talks, most Palestinians remained skeptical about the U.S. commitment
to brokering a solution. Nearly three in four Palestinians Gallup
interviewed in late May and early June this year rejected the notion that
recent efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama and Kerry demonstrate that the
U.S. is more serious than ever about mediating a solution to the conflict
that is acceptable to both sides.

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement:

Recent efforts by US President Barack Obama and U.S. Secretary of State,
John Kerry, demonstrate that the United States is more serious than ever
about mediating a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that is
acceptable to both sides:

Palestinian adults: Agree 12% Disagree 74% Don’t know/refused 14%
May 21-June 4, 2013 Gallup

While internationally many see the U.S. as the only viable broker of peace
negotiations, doubts abound among Palestinians about what the Obama
administration can deliver. Two in three Palestinians (66%) say they do not
have any trust at all that Obama can help Israel and the Palestinians
negotiate a peace treaty that is equally fair to both sides. And, 23% say
they do not have much trust.

Israelis surveyed in fall 2012 shared some of this doubt. Twenty percent of
Israelis said they had no trust at all in Obama's ability to navigate both
sides toward a treaty that is fair to Israel and the Palestinians, while 38%
did not have much trust. Seven percent said they have a great deal of trust,
while 32% had a fair amount of trust.

“How much trust do you have in U.S. President Barack Obama to help Israel
and Palestine negotiate a peace treaty that is equally fair to both sides –
a great deal, a fair amount, not much or none at all?

Palestinian adults: A great deal 1% A fair amount 7% Not much 23% None at
all 66%
Israeli adults: A great deal 7% A fair amount 32% Not much 38% None at all
20%
* Israelis surveyed in 2012.

Palestinians' strong doubts about U.S. intentions or willingness to deliver
a fair peaceful settlement do not shroud their support for the peace
process. Thirty-eight percent of Palestinians say they strongly support the
process, and 27% moderately support it. A minority strongly (18%) or
moderately (12%) oppose it.

Releasing Prisoners, 1967 Boundaries, Halting Settlements Top Preconditions

Some political observers on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides are more
likely to see the peace negotiations as a futile process at best. These
observers are concerned that most, if not all, of the long, controversial
list of preconditions that the Palestinians and the Israelis have held onto
as prerequisites for starting negotiations have yet to be agreed on.

Gallup asked Palestinians whether a series of issues should be preconditions
for starting negotiations and considered a priority. Among all issues
surveyed, three are of paramount importance to Palestinians for starting
peace negotiations. Palestinians place the highest importance and priority
on the release of Palestinians currently held in Israeli jails, Israel
committing to the 1967 boundaries as the basis of the borders between the
two states, and Israel agreeing to freeze all settlement construction in the
West Bank and East Jerusalem.

“Next I would like you to think about several actions that are discussed by
each side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as possible preconditions for
restarting peace talks. For each action, please say if this should or
should no be a precondition for restarting peace talks.

Compared to other preconditions, do you consider ___to be a top priority or
not a top priority:

Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state
Precondition 5% Top priority 52%

Palestinians give up the right of return for Palestinian refugees
Precondition 6% Top priority 53%

Palestinians agree not to pursue Israel at the International Criminal Court
Precondition 9% Top priority 58%

Israel agrees to freeze all settlement construction in the West Bank and
East Jerusalem
Precondition 86% Top priority 95%

Israel commits to the 1967 boundaries as the basis for the borders of the
two states
Precondition 80% Top priority 95%

Israel will release Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails
Precondition 93% Top priority 99%

Implications

Kerry's announcement last week comes at a crucial time for U.S. engagement
in the Middle East, where the U.S. is perceived as either winding down its
involvement or at least hesitant to engage any further. For decades, the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict has shaped other regional events and affected
how the Arab and Muslim world views the U.S. and the West as backers of
Israel. Over the past few years, other events -- the Arab Spring, the
conflict between Israel and Iran, and sectarian rifts -- have pushed the
Palestine question further back on the regional political stage.

Gallup data show that regardless of Palestinians' doubts about the fairness
of the U.S., the majority support the peace process. Kerry's recent efforts
demonstrate that the U.S. can pull certain strings to bring Palestinians and
the Israelis together. To earn Palestinian and Israeli confidence in the
talks as they unfold, however, Kerry needs to find a fair way to deal with
the impasse on peace talk preconditions.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries
Gallup continually surveys, please contact us.

Survey Methods

Results are based face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults,
aged 15 and older, conducted in May-June 2013 in the Palestinian Territories
and in October 2012 in Israel. For results based on the total sample of
national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling
error is ±3.7 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error
or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review
Gallup's Country Data Set details.