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Friday, August 16, 2013
Excerpts: Turkey losing clout in region. Egyptian president criticizes

Excerpts: Turkey losing clout in region. Egyptian president criticizes
President Obama. US mission in Jordan could last years August 16, 2013

+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 16 Aug.’13:”Report: Turkey Losing Regional
Clout in Region as Egypt Crisis Flares”, Agence France Presse
SUBJECT: Turkey losing clout in region

QUOTE:”Muslim Brotherhood derailing Ankara’s hopes to lead a regional surge
of Islamist political power:

FULL TEXT:Turkey's clout in the Middle East is taking a beating with the
brutal sidelining of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood derailing Ankara's hopes to
lead a regional surge of Islamist political power, analysts say.

Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was an early supporter
of the 2011 uprising that ousted President Hosni Mubarak and subsequently
nourished close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Turkey invested both politically and financially in the Arab world's most
populous country after Mohammed Morsi was sworn in as Egypt's first
democratically elected leader in June 2012, aiming to bolster Ankara's
influence and show that Turkey was not the only country where Islam and
democracy could coexist.

Morsi's ouster and the brutal crackdown on his supporters have now dealt a
harsh blow to Turkey's dreams of playing a leadership role in the broader
Middle East region in the wake of the Arab Spring, analysts said.

"Turkey hoped the transformation in the Middle East would work in its favour
because it would gain clout if Muslim Brotherhood-type governments came to
power in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria," said Professor Ilter Turan at Istanbul's
Bilgi University.

"This plan did not work in Syria, and it collapsed in Egypt," he told AFP.

"Turkey is forced into isolation in the Middle East, losing its control of
the situation in the region."

NATO member Turkey had banked on expanding its influence in the Middle East
thanks to robust economic growth under the AKP and an Arab power vacuum
created by the region's popular uprisings.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a popular leader on the Arab street
because of his angry outbursts over Israel's treatment of Palestinians, has
championed democracy movements across the region and sought to position his
country as a role model and moral compass.

After the fall of dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, his government allied
itself with the Muslim Brotherhood and Tunisia's moderate Islamist party
Ennahda, which heads the country's new coalition cabinet.

And Erdogan has emerged as one of the fiercest critics of his former ally
Bashar Assad as the uprising against the Syrian leader turned into a
fully-fledged civil war.

Turkey sharply condemned Wednesday's[14 Aug.] deadly crackdown on pro-Morsi
protesters, which Erdogan termed a "massacre" and President Abdullah Gul
called "unacceptable".

"The frustration voiced by Turkey's leaders stems not only from the pictures
of violence or failure of democracy in Egypt, but also from the collapse of
the government's dreams to become a regional player," Turan said.

Morsi was overthrown by the military on July 3 after massive protests
against his rule, leaving Egyptians divided between his supporters and those
who argue he let the economy tumble while seeking to concentrate power in
Islamist groups' hands.

Erdogan condemned Morsi's ouster as a "coup", a stance that has infuriated
the interim government in Cairo and sharply curbed Turkey's ability to
influence events in Egypt.

"Turkey has responded morally to the crisis but politically it's isolated,"
said Huseyin Bagci a professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.

Analysts also said events in post-Mubarak Egypt had strained relations
between a trio of Sunni powers -- Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia -- that
were once united in their stance.

Bagci argued that Turkey, already embarrassed by the unprecedented anti-AKP
protests that swept the nation in June, is now too isolated to claim a
leadership role.

"Turkey has lost its chances of leadership in the region," he said.

Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, said that Sunni split
would have regional implications.

"The Sunni coalition that was going to make Turkey stronger in the Middle
East has collapsed after the Egypt crisis," he told AFP.

"This will impact regional policies, including on Syria."

+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 16 Aug.’13:”Egypt Presidency Suggests Obama
Remarks May 'Embolden Armed Groups'”, Agence France Presse
SUBJECT: Egypt’s president criticizes President Obama
QUOTE: “Egypt’s president :’[Obama]statements not based on facts may
encourage violent armed groups’ “

Egypt's president on Friday[16 Aug.] suggested U.S. President Barack Obama's
condemnation of a deadly crackdown on Islamists may "encourage violent armed
groups".

"The presidency fears statements not based on facts may encourage violent
armed groups," it said in a statement responding to Obama's condemnation of
Wednesday's[14 Aug.] carnage when police moved to disperse Islamist protest
camps.

"The presidency appreciates US concern for developments in Egypt, but it
wished it could have clarified matters," said the statement published by the
official MENA news agency.

"Egypt is facing terrorist acts aimed at government institutions and vital
installations," the statement said.

Obama on Thursday[15 Aug.] said he was cancelling a joint military exercise
with Egypt, adding he "strongly condemns" the security forces' operation
that killed more than 300 people in the Cairo protest camps.

+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 16 Aug.’13:”US mission in Jordan could last years as
Syria war rages—Dempsey(Chairman, US Joint-Chiefs-of- Staff)”, Reuters

SUBJECT: US mission in Jordan could last years

QUOTE: “America expands assistance that now includes stationing F-16 fighter
jets and Patriot missiles in the Kingdom” fighter

FULL TEXT:AMMAN — The top US military officer told American troops in Jordan
on Thursday[15 Aug.] that their mission to help the Kingdom contain the
fallout from Syria’s war would likely last years, as the United States
bolsters support for the key regional ally.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs-of-Staff, addressed a
group of mostly US planners who have arrived over the past several months as
America expands assistance that now includes stationing F-16 fighter jets
and Patriot missiles in the Kingdom.

The US military has roughly 1,000 troops stationed in Jordan.

Dempsey told around 100 troops at a facility on the outskirts of Amman that
they would be critical in helping anticipate and “shape” events on the
ground. His comments came as fears mount over how massive inflows of
refugees could undermine the Kingdom’s stability.

“We’re at our best when we can actually shape events and prevent conflict,”
he said, noting the efforts to coordinate humanitarian relief.

“And that’s another reason why you’re here, [to] help us shape — understand
and shape — so that we don’t end up having to react to events but rather
have some influence on them from the start.”

Dempsey fielded questions, including on how long the mission might last,
assuming the situation on the ground did not escalate. The general replied
that Jordan would need to feel fully capable of dealing not only with
humanitarian crises but also any threat of attack, including from
extremists.

“I think we’re probably talking about several years, and therefore several
rotations [of troops],” he said, speaking to a group that included army
planners from the 1st Armoured Division, which Dempsey led a decade ago
during the Iraq war.

“We haven’t actually put an end-date on it for that very reason — because it
will depend how the situation evolves in Syria... It will also depend on how
our Jordanian counterparts feel about their ability to deal with these
issues themselves.”

Dempsey met His Majesty King Abdullah and his Jordanian counterpart on
Wednesday and said he would carry a request back to Washington from Amman
for manned US surveillance aircraft to help monitor the long border with
Syria.

During his Middle East trip, which began in Israel on Monday, Dempsey has
voiced concern about radical elements of the opposition fighting to remove
Syrian President Bashar Assad. But he has expressed confidence the United
States was gaining a better understanding of the moderate opposition, which
Washington and its allies are looking to support.

One fear in Amman and Washington is that Islamic radicals now battling in
Syria could at some point turn their sights on Jordan, particularly once the
Syrian conflict ends.

“The follow-on challenge... will be ensuring that they have a capability to
defeat what will likely be a terrorist threat that will spill over at some
point,” Dempsey said.

“I’m not predicting that. But it’s certainly a possibility — and it’s one
that they feel.”

==========
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA

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