Facing the North
Extreme tension prevails along Israel's northern border and the IDF is
deploying new systems and resources. Is the Israeli military ready for any
development?

Amir Rapaport 23/8/2013
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=2387

Radars being mounted on masts all over the Golan Heights are only a part of
the rapid changes that currently transform the border between Israel and
Syria: against the background of the civil war raging on the other side of
the fence, the border takes a new shape.

This is how it looks on the ground: the sound of gunfire was heard in early
May from the direction of the village of Jamla, on the other side of the
border fence system between Israel and Syria.

At an IDF post near Ramat-Magshimim, currently manned by troopers from a
special operations unit, a cold wind was blowing. The weather did not
prevent the parties on the Syrian side of the border from pressing on with
their routine operations: on one side, Syrian Army troops loyal to President
Bashar Al-Assad were clearly visible; on the other side – groups of rebels,
with the deep gorge of the Rokkad River separating between them. A Syrian
tank fired a shell across the gorge, at a rebel position, close to the
village of Jamla. A thin cloud of smoke rose from the point of impact. No
serious damage was observed from the Israeli side.

Can this belligerence be directed toward Israel as well? IDF sources point
out that not less than 90 different rebel groups are currently active in
Syria. Ten of the different underground groups maintain "representative
branches", namely – active forces, in the Golan Heights area, not far from
the Israeli border.

Most of these elements are not regarded as a major threat to Israel even on
the day following the collapse of the Assad regime (assuming that such a day
eventually arrives), but there is one particular group regarded as highly
dangerous, and this group is gradually consolidating in the space between
the village of Jamla and the village of Dar'aa, in the southern part of the
Syrian Golan Heights. It is the area between the river Rokaad and the river
Yarmouk, which constitutes a natural border between Syria and Jordan. The
entire area is within reach (or within mortar range) of the settlement in
the southern part of the Israeli Golan Heights.

The members of the group that worries Israel most of all call themselves
"Jabhat Al Nusra". They always wear black garments and each and every one of
them grows a thick beard, while keeping his head bald and shiny. They even
shave off their moustaches, down to the very last bristle. The group belongs
to the organization known as "Global Jihad". More precisely, they regard
themselves as partners in the ideology of Al Qaeda.

Most of the members of "Al Nusra" are not Syrian, but Jihadists assembled in
Syria from far away places, from Chechnya to Afghanistan. As far as they are
concerned, the toppling of the regime of Bashar Al-Assad is only the first
step on the way to a more significant struggle – against the "Zionist
infidels".

According to the estimates of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, there are
currently several hundred members of "Al Nusra" in Syria, and only a small
part of them is in the southern Golan Heights. Most of them are located near
the town of Aleppo in northwestern Syria. The group successfully dominated
the enclave in the southern Golan Heights while taking advantage of the
gradual disintegration of the Syrian Army in the area. In the past, forces
regarded as part of the Syrian "security cordon" opposite Israel were
deployed along the entire sector.

This cordon has been irrelevant for some time now. In the northern Golan
Heights, members of several rebel groups, sharing a secular and liberal
common denominator, dominated the territory. In the central section of the
Golan Heights, Assad's Army has managed to hold fast. Its primary hold is on
the area around the town of Quneitra, at the heart of the Golan Heights. If
Quneitra fell to the rebels' hands, the road leading to Damascus would
become wide open, and no military force will remain deployed on the road to
the capital.

IDF authorities have no doubt that as soon as the members of "Al Nusra" have
completed their battles against the Syrian Army, they will traverse their
weapons toward Israel. They are not in short supply of weapons, or money:
they receive regular supplies through irregular channels, from the bank
accounts of the global movement. If the money cannot be obtained through
these accounts, it can be made available as cash, from Iraq. There is no
serious ground obstacle between southern Syria and Iraq, and Iraq has become
a more-or-less Iranian satellite state on the day the last US troops went
back stateside.

New Border
As far back as 2011, IDF Northern Command estimated that a civil war in
Syria would lead to deterioration in the security situation on the Golan
Heights – an area which, until then, had been regarded as Israel's most
tranquil border since 1974. The initial concern was that the Assad regime
will collapse within weeks or a few months at the most, and that its
collapse would trigger the launching of missiles into Israel as well as the
passage of refugees from Syria into Israeli territory. In the meantime, it
turned out that the Assad regime has managed to hold on longer than the life
expectancy predicted for it. Admittedly, refugees are fleeing Syria by their
thousands, but they are going to Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon - not to Israel.
Right now, the race being run on the Golan Heights is between the security
situation, which deteriorates from one week to the next, and the rate at
which the new obstacle is being constructed - which is said to be meteoric.

Initially, back in 2011, IDF Northern Command re-excavated a massive
anti-tank ditch along the border, in the central sector of the Golan
Heights. Last fall, the construction of a new fence system began along a
60-km long stretch of the Golan Heights. Countless surveillance resources,
radars and cameras were deployed along the border as well. A new war room
was established, employing a new technological system designated MSS
(Multi-Sensor System), through which female IDF operators receive alerts of
any movement on the Syrian side of the border.

The radars mounted on masts are made by the Elta division of IAI. The
electro-optical surveillance devices are diversified – developed and
manufactured by various industries. The project designated MSS is executed
by Elbit Systems, and its cost is estimated at a quarter of a billion NIS
(more than $60 million).

Over the course of 2012, a smart fence system was erected along a 9-km
stretch of the border on the Golan Heights and minefields throughout the
Golan Heights were renewed. By August 2013, the entire state-of-the-art
border defense system will be completed along a 60-km stretch of the border.
This will be the world's first border defense system based on data fusion: a
multi-sensor system will transmit a massive amount of data to a main C2
center. The data will be analyzed through automated means, among other
things, based on familiarity with routine activity along the border, and the
ability to identify any suspicious indicator deviating from that routine.

The employment of this system will make the need to employ dozens of field
intelligence operators as observers redundant. The personnel required in
order to operate the MSS will be substantially smaller than the accepted
norms in effect along other borders, and the data will be obtained from the
field even under adverse weather conditions, 24 hours a day.

IDF Northern Command presses on with its investments, in personnel as well.
In preparation for the summer of 2013, a new surveillance battalion is being
assembled for this sector. The Israeli defense establishment is apprehensive
of various scenarios – one of them involves an attempt by terrorist elements
to approach the Israeli-Syrian border in order to kidnap a serviceman.

Against the background of the new situation, the IDF - which in the past
deployed mainly bored reservists on the Golan Heights - now assign their
best troops, from the regular formations, to this sector.

Syria's Future
Bashar Al-Assad's ongoing slaughter of his own people notwithstanding,
Russia continues to provide him with arms on the basis of past deals. Some
of the loot delivered to Syria has included upgraded 302 mm rockets, SA16
surface-to-air missiles (some of which were destroyed in an air strike by
IAF, according to foreign sources), and Yakhont shore-to-sea missiles,
capable of hitting any naval target, to within a few meters, even from a
distance of 300 kilometers.

Russia insists that Assad pay for the goods delivered to the very last US
dollar, despite his predicament, but economic support is provided by the
Iranian regime, the difficulties facing the Iranian economy itself
notwithstanding. The Russians provide the Syrian Army with guidance and
training as to how to run a guerrilla war, but the lion's share of the
military support is provided by Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah forces are
even fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with troopers from Assad's Army.

The ongoing civil war in Syria has countless civilian implications. Jordan
(now home to more than a million Syrian refugees) and Lebanon (now home to
half a million refugees) are collapsing under the burden of the Syrian
swarms, which undermine their stability. In Lebanon, the Syrian civil war
has escalated to fights between Assad's supporters and opponents in the
northern part of the country, near Tripoli.

Naturally, the worst fear of the IDF is a scenario where the southern Golan
Heights has become a territory fully dominated by Global Jihad – a magnet
for Jihadists who would continue to flock in from all corners of the earth.
The IDF Intelligence Directorate has assigned a high priority to the attempt
to understand what exactly is going on among the black-clad bearded rebels -
and that is by no means an easy task.

The Jordanians are particularly concerned about the situation on the Golan
Heights, as they fear the Jihadists not less than Israel does. US
organizations are also present here, helping the Hashemite Kingdom to seal
its border areas more tightly and feed the refugees.

What's in Store?
Observing the sector from the IDF post on Tel Hazeka, at the heart of the
Golan Heights, one could perceive yet another illustration of the fighting
going on right under the noses of the IDF soldiers. Below the post, there is
a thick forest surrounding a number of villages. Occasionally, a detachment
of rebels, belonging to one group or another, would suddenly emerge from
among the trees and capture a Syrian Army outpost, and vice versa. In the
context of these skirmishes, stray rounds sometimes hit IDF targets as well.
In order to minimize the amount of errors during the hours of darkness, all
IDF vehicles are now driving around the sector carrying very clear
identification markers.

How will all this end? According to one scenario, the fighting may come to
an end if Bashar Al-Assad were assassinated. According to another scenario,
the fighting in Syria may go on for years.

In Lebanon as Well
In the meantime, the IDF is preparing to transform the border in the other
northern sector, opposite Lebanon. The borders between Israel, Syria and
Lebanon converge near the village of Chebaa. In the past, Lebanon had been
regarded as the most severe reference threat imposed on Israel, while the
Syrian border on the Golan Heights was regarded as perfectly tranquil.

The existing border defense obstacle between Israel and Lebanon was erected
in the late 1990s, as part of the preparations of the IDF for the withdrawal
from the security cordon in southern Lebanon.

Here, the border line defense system is based on a surveillance and control
system formerly designated "Solid Mirror". This system can identify almost
any occurrence beyond the Lebanese border, but it requires massive personnel
for its operation.
The IDF Northern Command is preparing to implement the MSS technology along
the Lebanese border as well. This border line, extending from the Golan
Heights in the east to the Mediterranean Sea in the west, is about 90
kilometers long.