Israel Policy Forum circulates seriously tainted poll
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 27 February 2014

The Israel Policy Forum. in cooperation with the Israeli Peace Initiative,
released today a poll with the intention apparently of setting the tone for
PM Netanyahu's visit to Washington.

The poll features serious errors. Among them:

#1. It grossly misrepresents the Arab Peace Initiative, claiming that
addressing the Palestinians alone would satisfy the requirements of the
initiative when in fact the initiative requires also full withdrawal from
the Golan Heights as well as withdrawal from part of the northern Galilee.

#2. It presents "components" of a deal that either have been rejected by the
Palestinians (refugee issue) or have a poorly defined element to them
("Security arrangements to protect against Iran and terror" and "Israel will
conduct security arrangements with the Americans" - also no direct and
explicit reference to Old City of Jerusalem.

#3. Built into the responses to the question about PM Netanyahu are the
assumptions made by the respondents regarding what kind of deal PM Netanyahu
would accept. Thus no conclusions can be actually reached from the results
without knowing what these assumptions are.

========================

Research Report by New Wave-Nielsen Alliance Regarding Israelis' views of
the Regional Approach and a Peace Agreement based on the Arab Peace
Initiative
Commissioned by the Israeli Peace Initiative Group ("Yisrael Yozemet")
February 20, 2014
http://www.israelpolicyforum.org/sites/ipforum2/files/IPI%20Group%20API%20Poll%20-%20Feb%2026,%20NewWave%20-%20Nielsen%20Research.pdf

The current survey was conducted on February 6, 2014, a representative
sample of 500, from a representative panel of some 100,000 Israelis
connected to the internet. We note that this sample, based on data from the
ONLINE PANEL, is not fully representative of Arabic- and Russian-speakers
who do not know Hebrew or of the ultra-Orthodox population.

In your opinion are the Palestinians interested in reaching an end to the
conflict?"
19% are sure/think that yes
77% are sure that they are not/think that they are not

Are the Israelis interested in reaching an end to the conflict
73% sure that they are/think that they are
20% are sure that they are not/think that they are not

Without intervention by the Arab states and the Arab League the Palestinians
will never reach an agreement with the Israelis on their own.
55% agree/agree very much
22% moderately agree
11% do not agree

[IMRA: this misrepresents the Arab Peace Initiative that requires Israel to
withdraw from the Golan Heights and part of the northern Galilee as well as
a Palestinian state]

Support Arab Peace Initiative [but without any description of its
components. (The only details included in the question stated that the two
sides would have to make concessions in order to reach an end to the
conflict and establishment of diplomatic relations with the Arab states and
Islam.)
63% sure/ think so
37% sure that they are not/think that they would not be supportive

Component
1. Removal of the threat of economic boycott
2. No right of return for refugees, with the exception of a symbolic
number, with Israel's agreement
3. Security arrangements to protect against Iran and terror
4. 300 million consumers and a billion residents will improve the
situation of Israeli citizens
5. Palestine will be demilitarized and Israel will conduct security
arrangements with the Americans
6. The US, the super powers and the Arab states will guarantee long- term
support for the agreement
7. Israel's borders will include settlements, with only minor territorial
exchanges
8. Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem will be part of the Arab capital
and Arab residents of East Jerusalem will be considered Palestinians
9. The Holy Sites will not be under any specific sovereignty and will be
managed separately by each religion

Assuming that these components will be part of a package deal to end the
conflict, to what extent would you be willing to support this agreement
76% sure that/think that they would support this idea

If Benjamin Netanyahu were to bring an agreement putting an end to the
conflict to the public, to what extent would you support him.
28% definitely would
46% think they would

If, as a result of opposition on the part of members of the Likud and
HaBayit Hayehudi parties, Benjamin Netanyahu were forced to break up the
Likud and establish a new party, what are the chances that they would
support this new party?

15% certain they would
41% think they would
________________________________________
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