Excerpts: Lebanon/Syrian border 'effectively erased'. Saudi criminalizes MB
as terrorists. Iraq gas to Jordan, Egypt and Africa, How the Ukraine crisis
ends March 07, 2014
+++SOURCE: Al Arabya News 7 Mar.’14:”Battle for Syrian rebel town erases
Lebanon Border”, The Associated Press
SUBJECT:Lebanon/Syria border ‘effectively erased’
QUOTE:”Sunnis and Shiites from Lebanon streaming into Syria to take up arms
on opposite sides . . . Lebanon is being sucked into the civil war next
door” .
FULL TEXT:Sunnis and Shiites from Lebanon are streaming into Syria to take
up arms on opposite sides of a fierce battle over a rebel stronghold - a
fight that has effectively erased the border between the two countries and
underlined how Lebanon is being sucked into the civil war next door.
The northeastern Lebanese town of Arsal, dominated by Sunnis, has become a
key logistical base for the Syrian rebels who have been fighting for months
to keep their hold on the strategic Syrian town of Yabroud, only 20 miles
away (30 kilometers) across the border.
On a recent day, armed fighters in pickup trucks and on motorbikes were seen
scrambling down dusty roads out of Arsal into the mountains to cross into
Syria and head to Yabroud. Syrian rebels move freely back and forth across
the border, and rebels wounded in the battle are brought to Arsal for
treatment in clandestine hospitals.
At the same time, Lebanese Shiite fighters from the Hezbollah guerrilla
group are crossing into Syria to fight alongside the forces of Syrian
President Bashar Assad that have been besieging Yabroud since November.
For the past three years, Lebanon has been struggling with the spillover
from Syria’s civil war. Sectarian tensions in Lebanon have escalated, as its
Sunni community largely supports the mainly Sunni Syrian rebel movement,
while its Shiites back Assad. Hezbollah, the most powerful armed force in
Lebanon, has thrown its weight behind Assad, sending fighters who have
tipped some battles in the government’s favor.
The violence has blown back into Lebanon itself, with suspected Sunni
extremists carrying out a string of retaliatory bombings against
Hezbollah-controlled Shiite areas.
Around Arsal, all sides are brought into dangerously close proximity,
exacerbated by the battle raging just over the border.
The town’s Sunni population strongly sympathizes with Syria’s rebels.
Lebanese security officials say a few hundred Lebanese Sunnis are believed
to be offering logistical support or fighting alongside the rebels,
particularly in Yabroud. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity
because they were not authorized to talk to the media.
But Arsal is surrounded by mainly Shiite towns in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa
valley, raising the potential for friction between the various fighters on
Lebanese soil. The town of Baalbek, 20 miles (30 kilometers) to the south,
is a source of many of the Hezbollah fighters heading to join the Yabroud
battle.
Syrian rebels being treated at Arsal hospitals said Hezbollah guerrillas
make up the bulk of the forces besieging Yabroud.
“They have many weapons, and they are fighting hard because Yabroud is
important for them,” one rebel, who spoke on condition he be identified only
by his first name, Basel, told The Associated Press. “But it’s our country
and we are strong men. We will defend our people, our land and our honor
until we die.”
Basel was seriously injured in the groin and left thigh when he and four
other rebels were preparing to ambush pro-government forces at Yabroud but
were instead ambushed themselves by troops who descended on them from
behind.
The 27-year-old needs surgery that Arsal’s makeshift hospital, attached to a
mosque, cannot provide. But his brother, standing at his bedside, said he
will not send him anywhere in Lebanon outside Arsal because he fears he
could be captured on route by Hezbollah fighters manning several checkpoints
in a neighboring Shiite village.
“I am going to pay more money to bring doctors here to help him, but he’s
only leaving this bed to go back to Syria,” the brother said. He declined to
give his name for fear of reprisals.
Another wounded Syrian rebel, Mohammed Awad, was barely out of the operating
room when he began pleading with doctors to let him go back to the front at
Yabroud.
The 20-year-old was wounded when a rocket hit a vehicle carrying him and
other fighters. His face bandaged after doctors removed shrapnel from his
jaw and left hand, Awad said he was determined to rejoin the battle because
he is originally from Syrian town of Qusair, another border town that was a
rebel stronghold until Hezbollah fighters helped overrun it last year in
their first major incursion in Syria’s war.
“This is enough reason to want to fight Hezbollah and Assad to death,” Awad
said.
But there is the issue of personal revenge too, he said: He lost four
uncles, two cousins and four female relatives amid the fighting in Qusair.
The battle for Yabroud is particularly fierce because the town is key for
rebels. It is their last stronghold in Syria’s Qalamoun region, between the
Lebanese border and the Syrian capital Damascus, an important route for
smuggling supplies to rebels from Lebanon.
Government forces have taken a string of other rebel-held towns in the area
in the past month and are now making a final push on Yabroud. Earlier this
week, Syrian helicopters attacked the town’s outskirts with barrel bombs -
containers packed with explosives and fuel that the government has used to
devastating effect in other rebel-held urban areas in Sryia.
The fighting has contributed to a wave of refugees fleeing across the border
to to Arsal. In the past two weeks alone, 13,000 arrived in Arsal, which has
already been overwhelmed by Syrians settling in makeshift camps in the
fields and hills on its outskirts.
Facilities for the rebels have geared up as well in Arsal. Two months ago, a
new hospital opened in the town with two operating theaters, an emergency
room and seven doctors on staff, including several surgeons, who perform an
average six operations a day.
So far, up to 200 people have been treated there, mostly Syrian fighters and
civilians, said Bassem Faris, a Syrian doctor and the hospital’s manager. He
was previously in Yabroud treating fighters at a makeshift hospital but had
to flee the area after the fall of Qusair.
“Every one of us has a role to play in this revolution, and I will be more
useful if I treat people and save lives,” Faris said.
“Every one of us has a role to play in this revolution, and I will be more
useful if I treat people and save lives,” Faris said.
+++SOURCE: Al Arabya News 7 Mar.’14:”Saudi Arabia declares Muslim
Brotherhood a terrorist group”
SUBJECT: Saudi criminalizes MB as terrorists
QUOTE:”Saudi Arabia blacklisted on Friday[7 Mar.] Muslim Brotherhood as a
terrorist group among three other militant groups in the Middle East . .
.includes the kingdom branch of the Shiite and the al-Nusra Front Hezbollah
movement and the Syria-based Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)”
Saudi Arabia blacklisted on Friday[7 Mar.] the Muslim Brotherhood as a
terrorist group among three other militant groups in the Middle East, Al
Arabiya News Channel reported, citing a royal decree.
The Saudi terrorism list also includes the kingdom’s branch of the Shiite
Hezbollah movement and the Syria-based Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) and the al-Nusra Front.
Hundreds of Saudi fighters are believed to have joined ISIS and al-Nusra in
Syria. The Saudi authorities have extended a deadline for those fighters to
return home.
The royal decree also criminalized taking membership in, supporting and
sympathizing with any of those groups.
+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 7 Mar.’14:”Jordan signs deal with Egypt, Iraq over
rehional energy venture”,by Mohammad Ghazal
SUBJECT: Iraq gas to Jordan, Egypt and Africa
QUOTE:”…deal… studying projects to transfer natural gas from Iraq to the
Kingdom and Egypt…”
FULL TEXT:SUBJECT:AMMAN — Jordan, Iraq and Egypt started on Thursday[6 Mar.]
studying projects to transfer natural gas from Iraq to the Kingdom and
Egypt, according to energy ministers of the three countries.
With regard to this, the three countries have started looking into extending
an oil pipeline from Iraq’s Basra to Egypt via Jordan’s Aqaba to export
Iraqi oil to Africa, they said during a ceremony to sign a memorandum of
understanding.
“We are looking into linking the natural gas fields in Iraq that are being
developed to the Arab Gas Pipeline in Jordan. Then, we can provide the
commodity to Jordan, Egypt and many other countries that are connected
through the existing pipeline,” Iraq’s Oil Minister Abdul Kareem Luaibi told
The Jordan Times on Thursday on the sidelines of the ceremony.
The Arab Gas Pipeline stretches from Egypt to Lebanon through Jordan and
Syria.
Under the memo, the three countries will examine extending the $18 billion
Iraqi oil pipeline, which will transfer one million barrels of crude oil per
day from Basra to Aqaba, to reach Egypt, Egypt’s oil minister, Sherif
Ismail, said during a press conference after he signed the memo with his
peers.
“Egypt is ready to refine the Iraqi oil at its refineries to facilitate its
exports to Sudan and many other African countries,” said Ismail on
Thursday[6 Mar.].
The Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline is expected to be operational late 2017,
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Mohammad Hamed said on Thursday[6
mar.], noting that the pipeline will provide Jordan with 150,000 barrels of
oil per day.
“The projects we are discussing with Iraq and Egypt are mega-projects that
will be a turning point in the Jordanian energy sector,” the energy minister
continued.
Stressing the importance of the planned projects, Luaibi said: “Iraq’s
production of oil and gas is expected to rise sharply during the few coming
years and we need gateways for exports. The pipeline through Aqaba will be a
main instrument in this regard and will help us boost our exports. In
addition, it will greatly benefit the Jordanian economy.”
Also on Thursday[6 Mar.], the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and
the National Electric Power Company signed two agreements with the
Jordanian-Egyptian FAJR Company to build an 800-metre pipeline that connects
the already under construction liquefied natural gas terminal in Aqaba Port
to the FAJR’s Arab Gas Pipeline.
Under the agreements, the pipeline will be used for transferring gas from
the terminal in Aqaba to power generation plants in Jordan that exist along
the pipeline, which stretches from El Arish in Egypt to the north of Jordan
and continues through Syria until Lebanon, said Hamed.
Gas is expected to be supplied to power generation plants through the Arab
Gas Pipeline as of early 2015, according to the ministry.
On natural gas imports from Egypt, Ismail said gas supply to Jordan is
completely halted at present and that the Egyptian authorities are working
around the clock to fix the pipeline, which was sabotaged frequently, to
resume supplies to Jordan as soon as possible.
+++SOURCE: The Washington Post 7 Mar.’14:”How the Ukraine Crisis Ends”By
Henry A. Kissinger
Henry A. Kissinger was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977.
SUBJECT: How the Ukraine crisis ends.
QUOTES:”if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s
outpost against the other – it should function as a bridge between them”;
“The test is not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction”
FULL TEXT:Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we
know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great
enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and
from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it
ends, not how it begins.
Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine
joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must
not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a
bridge between them.
Russia must accept that to try to force Ukraine into a satellite status, and
thereby move Russia’s borders again, would doom Moscow to repeat its history
of self-fulfilling cycles of reciprocal pressures with Europe and the United
States.
The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a
foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus. The
Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for
centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the
most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of
Poltava in 1709 , were fought on Ukrainian soil. The Black Sea Fleet —
Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean — is based by
long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea. Even such famed dissidents as
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky insisted that Ukraine was an
integral part of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.
The European Union must recognize that its bureaucratic dilatoriness and
subordination of the strategic element to domestic politics in negotiating
Ukraine’s relationship to Europe contributed to turning a negotiation into a
crisis. Foreign policy is the art of establishing priorities.
The Ukrainians are the decisive element. They live in a country with a
complex history and a polyglot composition. The Western part was
incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1939 , when Stalin and Hitler divided
up the spoils. Crimea, 60 percent of whose population is Russian , became
part of Ukraine only in 1954 , when Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth,
awarded it as part of the 300th-year celebration of a Russian agreement with
the Cossacks. The west is largely Catholic; the east largely Russian
Orthodox. The west speaks Ukrainian; the east speaks mostly Russian. Any
attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other — as has been the
pattern — would lead eventually to civil war or break up. To treat Ukraine
as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for decades any prospect
to bring Russia and the West — especially Russia and Europe — into a
cooperative international system.
Ukraine has been independent for only 23 years; it had previously been under
some kind of foreign rule since the 14th century. Not surprisingly, its
leaders have not learned the art of compromise, even less of historical
perspective. The politics of post-independence Ukraine clearly demonstrates
that the root of the problem lies in efforts by Ukrainian politicians to
impose their will on recalcitrant parts of the country, first by one
faction, then by the other. That is the essence of the conflict between
Viktor Yanukovych and his principal political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko.
They represent the two wings of Ukraine and have not been willing to share
power. A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts
of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation,
not the domination of a faction.
Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine, have
not acted on this principle. Each has made the situation worse. Russia would
not be able to impose a military solution without isolating itself at a time
when many of its borders are already precarious. For the West, the
demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the
absence of one.
Putin should come to realize that, whatever his grievances, a policy of
military impositions would produce another Cold War. For its part, the
United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be patiently
taught rules of conduct established by Washington. Putin is a serious
strategist — on the premises of Russian history. Understanding U.S. values
and psychology are not his strong suits. Nor has understanding Russian
history and psychology been a strong point of U.S. policymakers.
Leaders of all sides should return to examining outcomes, not compete in
posturing. Here is my notion of an outcome compatible with the values and
security interests of all sides:
1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political
associations, including with Europe.
2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it
last came up.
3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the
expressed will of its people. Wise Ukrainian leaders would then opt for a
policy of reconciliation between the various parts of their country.
Internationally, they should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland.
That nation leaves no doubt about its fierce independence and cooperates
with the West in most fields but carefully avoids institutional hostility
toward Russia.
4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia
to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to
Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s
sovereignty over Crimea. Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in
elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would
include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at
Sevastopol.
These are principles, not prescriptions. People familiar with the region
will know that not all of them will be palatable to all parties. The test is
not absolute satisfaction but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution
based on these or comparable elements is not achieved, the drift toward
confrontation will accelerate. The time for that will come soon enough.
=========================================================
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA
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