The European Union: Has the Countdown Begun?
INSS Insight No. 555, May 29, 2014
Oded Eran
http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=7051

On May 25, 2014, 388 million European Union citizens voted for more than 751
members of the European Parliament. On the agenda was the future of the
“European project,” an unprecedented attempt to create a meta-national
institution endowed with powers willingly relinquished by the member states
and transferred to the said entity. The elections were thus a vote of
confidence in the EU and a test of support by European citizens for the
continued existence of the Union, and especially, the continued
strengthening of its central institutions. This gave the election results an
importance that exceeds the size of the various parties that constitute the
European Parliament.
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On May 25, 2014, 388 million European Union citizens voted for more than 751
members of the European Parliament, who will serve for the next five years.
On the agenda was the future of the “European project,” an unprecedented
attempt to create a meta-national institution endowed with powers willingly
relinquished by the member states and transferred to the said entity.

Since the establishment of the institutions and organizations that gave rise
to the European Union out of the ruins of the Second World War, there has
been ongoing tension between the EU central institutions and its key
members, especially Great Britain. While the founding states (Germany,
France, Italy, and the three Benelux countries) believed from the outset in
their ability to create a supranational system, other countries that joined
later, and in particular Great Britain, objected to several basic principles
and therefore received “concessions,” including the freedom to not adopt
the common currency, the euro, and the freedom to not join the Schengen
Agreement (named for a small town in Luxembourg where the borders of France,
Germany, and Luxembourg meet), which provides for completely free movement,
without border control, between these countries. In Great Britain, the
resistance was even greater, and 1993 saw the establishment of the UK
Independence Party (UKIP), which objects to British membership in the EU.
British Prime Minister David Cameron has promised that if he is reelected
next year, he will hold a referendum in 2017 on Britain’s continued
membership in the Union.

The financial crisis in the industrialized world has not bypassed Europe in
general and specific members in particular, for example, Greece. It has
increased doubts as to the EU’s ability, first, to prevent this kind of
crisis, and second, to provide appropriate solutions. In fact, only the
determination of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi enabled the EU to come to the aid of the suffering
countries and give the organization and its financial institutions prospects
of recovery.

This week’s elections were thus a vote of confidence in the EU and a test of
support by European citizens for the continued existence of the Union, and
especially, the continued strengthening of its central institutions. This
gave the election results an importance that exceeds the size of the various
parties that constitute the European Parliament. Many voices called for
increasing independence for the member states at the expense of the EU
central institutions, specifically, the European Council (composed of heads
of state), the European Parliament, and the European Commission. An example
is the interview by former French President Nicolas Sarkozy to two major
European newspapers, in which he recommended establishing a central
French-German bloc in Europe; this would of course weaken the role of the
major EU institutions. Sarkozy added that in his opinion, the Schengen
Agreement should be abolished.

Was it Sarkozy who gave the final push for the astonishing victory of Marine
Le Pen and the National Front in France? Perhaps, but the trend was clear
even before Sarkozy’s interview. When the results were announced after
two-thirds of the vote had been counted, Le Pen herself declared that the
people “no longer want to be led by those outside our borders, by EU
commissioners and technocrats who are not elected.” The Euroskeptics, as
they are called, doubled their strength in the new Parliament, most notably
in Denmark and the Netherlands, where anti-immigration parties were elected,
and in Hungary, where Jobbik, a party with clear anti-Semitic overtones,
made significant gains. In Great Britain, the UKIP apparently came in first.
Its leader, Nigel Farage, has stated that his party wants not only Great
Britain, but all of Europe to withdraw from the EU.

While the European People’s Party, which held the largest number of seats
(265) in the outgoing Parliament, has retained this primacy, it lost more
than 40 seats. In Germany, its stronghold, a party called Alternative for
Germany, established only a year ago, won 6.5 percent of the votes.

Yet despite the loss of seats by the European People’s Party, its electoral
victory is very important because it reflects the desire of the centrists to
continue the unification process. On the other hand, there are increasing
calls in Europe, and not only from Marine Le Pen, for full transparency in
the EU executive body, i.e., the European Commission, and for its
subordination to the European Parliament. The head of the European People’s
Party, Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, will likely be appointed head of
the Commission. Juncker is greatly respected throughout Europe, and in
addition to serving as former prime minister of Luxembourg, has played an
active role in saving Europe from the economic crisis in recent years. He
will have the heavy responsibility of restoring the European voter’s trust
in the EU’s central apparatus, those more than 30,000 anonymous officials in
Brussels who have the power to decide on laws and regulations that are an
integral part of daily life for all European citizens. Juncker will have to
cooperate more closely with the European Parliament, whose power has grown
in the past five years and will grow even more, as the Euroskeptics are
eager to prove that they were elected in order to reduce the power of the
European Commission.

The European dream suffered a hard blow in the 2014 elections, but the
ambitious idea has not come to an end. In the face of the rising economic
power of the United States and China, the countries of Europe, other than
perhaps Germany, will have a difficult time coping alone. At the same time,
the main parties in the EU will not have an easy time resisting the
extremist xenophobic parties built on nationalism and ideological opposition
to the idea of union.

And Israel? The rise of nationalist parties with racist and anti-Semitic
backgrounds should worry Israel and the Jewish community in Europe. The
growing number of anti-Semitic incidents in Europe, including physical
violence, has already set off alarm bells among heads of state. The murder
in Brussels several hours before the polls opened in Europe, in which two
Israelis were among the four fatalities, is symbolic. Israel must demand
concerted action throughout the continent, led by education and law
enforcement efforts, in order to confront the growing anti-Semitism.

Some in Israel will perhaps find some consolation in the trend toward the
weakening of the EU’s central institution in Brussels because of Europe’s
scathing criticism of Israeli policy on relations with the Palestinians, and
especially on the settlements. Yet any consolation is limited: In the coming
years, Europe will remain not only Israel’s largest trading partner, but
also a political bloc that, despite all the differences of opinion and the
clear trend that emerged in the European Parliament elections, will continue
to express its collective opinion on the subject of the Middle East. While
the preference of Israeli leaders for transferring the political dialogue
with Europe from Brussels to the leaders of individual states will grow
stronger, it would be a mistake to think that these elections have
eliminated the central apparatus. Political leaders in the key countries of
the EU, and especially in Germany, will likely wish to strengthen the
central establishment in order to prevent the destructive consequences of
isolationism and a return to the period when the idea of the nation-state
reigned supreme. In the twentieth century, this led to destruction,
devastation, and of course the Holocaust, which annihilated one third of the
Jewish people.