Update: Is Low Cost of Iron Dome Interceptor a Game Changer?

"Iron Dome quickly recognizes the trajectory of incoming rockets and whether
they are headed for major population centers. Those are shot down, while
others are allowed to fall in empty fields to spare the hefty cost of firing
the sophisticated interceptors. Local reports say each launching costs about
$20,000."
Israel's Iron Dome changes the face of battle
Associated Press - Published YNET: 07.12.14, 01:05 / Israel News Yoav
Zitun contributed to this report
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4541496,00.html

At $50,000 an interceptor, Iron Dome could be a budget buster but at $20,000
an intercept we are talking about $200 million to have supplies in storage
to shoot down ten thousand rockets.

$200 million is a lot of money but hardly a budget buster. So the
commentary below from 9 July may be wrong.

That doesn't mean that the rockets don't matter.

At 5% failure rate there are still rockets that would hit targets and the
shards from the interceptions also are dangerous. Add to that: the rockets
still interfere with carrying out normal lives.

Another consideration: Uzi Rubin of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic
Studies - a preeminent Israeli expert on missile defense who is founder and
director of the Arrow
defense program against long-range missiles in the Israeli Ministry of
Defense told IMRA that if Hamas already has the resources in place in the
Gaza Strip it could, in two years of "quiet for quiet" :

1. Have chemical warheads using commercial chemicals such a chlorine.
2. Produce missiles with guidance systems.

While Rubin notes that Israeli interception technology can address the
challenge of the guidance systems, it should be noted that a 5% failure rate
in a situation that thanks to "quiet for quiet" Hamas has guided missiles
with chemical warheads that means that the 5% that make it will hit the most
sensitive of targets and they could include a chemical attack.

Policy conclusion: Iron Dome is a fantastic piece of equipment and it is
getting better all the time. On the other hand, the Iron Dome cannot
substitute for destroying the current offensive capabilities of the Gaza
terrorists and insuring that these capabilities are not restored under the
cover of "quiet for quiet".

==================
Weekly Commentary: Warning: Last Round Iron Dome Can Protect Civilians if
Goal Quiet for Quiet

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 9 July 2014

A warning for the consideration of Israeli policymakers:

Operation Protective Edge will be the last round Iron Dome can protect
civilians if the goal now is only a restoration of "quiet for quiet".

That's because it is expected that under a restoration "quiet for quiet", in
the absence of a significant reduction in the Gaza weapons stores and
weapons making capabilities, there will be ten times as many rockets in the
Gaza Strip in the next round as there are today.

And that's a critical increase.

Today Israel is launching Iron Dome interceptors to shoot down literally
every rocket that is projected to hit an urban area.

If we were to follow the same approach in the next round we would literally
exhaust the inventory of Iron Dome interceptors in a very few days.

But that's not what would happen.

The inventory of interceptors would be reduced so dramatically in the first
few hours of the next round that decision makers would have no choice but to
restrict interceptor launches to defending the most strategic of Israeli
locations.

We are talking about a very short list of civilian and military locations.

Everything else won't be protected.

And the public will be absolutely furious.

After all, the public will know that Israel has technology that can protect
it from attack and that the decision makers have decided not to protect
them.

The above is not necessarily a serious concern of COS Gantz since he
probably won't be COS in the next round.

But Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ya'alon have no
plans to retire anytime soon.

All other things being equal, if Operation Protective Edge ends with only
"quiet for quiet"then Netanyahu and Ya'alon will go down in history after
the next round as the PM and DM who ordered the IDF not to protect millions
of Israeli civilians from a nightmare of rocket attacks.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il