Weekly Commentary: Gearing for Accelerated Demilitarization

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 31 July 2014

Some Israelis believe today that President Obama links the demilitarization
of the Gaza Strip to a "lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict" in order to make the arms in the Gaza Strip a "stick" to press
Israel to agree to the terms he has in mind for a "lasting solution".

They argue that the White House believes disarming the terrorists in the
Gaza Strip simply because it's the right thing to do (as the EU demands and
as the PLO committed to in the agreements it signed with Israel), would be
counterproductive as it would give Israel the impression that there was no
compelling urgency to reaching a "lasting solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict".

Regardless of the motivation, Israel completely rejects Mr. Obama's stand.

The challenge, therefore, is to lead with a demilitarization proposal for
implementation during an ostensibly long term/permanent ceasefire rather
than react to the proposals of others.

There should be several key features:

#1. Numerical goals for the monitored destruction and/or removal of various
types of weapons and key weapons manufacturing equipment with a very short
timetable.

Take note: unlike the case of Syria, these are not chemical weapons
requiring either very special teams or time consuming procedures and the
process is to take place during a ceasefire.

#2. A second stage follow up survey for weapons and key weapons
manufacturing equipment that was not covered by the numerical goals with
arrangements for the immediate destruction and/or removal of weapons and
weapons manufacturing equipment discovered in the course of the survey.

Israel should propose the methodologies to be followed for this survey -
including both the technologies to be employed and the actions required by
the search teams and the means to monitor and document the activities of the
search teams.

A plan that doesn’t include a methodology for effectively searching the
military facilities Hamas has built underneath the major hospitals in Gaza,
for example, is a farce.

Will everything be found? Of course not.

But the timely implementation of the first stage – with the high profile
destruction of large quantities of weapons and weapons manufacturing
equipment – would already be a major blow against Hamas and the other terror
groups in the Gaza Strip. This activity could encourage many Gazans to
cooperate and provide information for the second stage survey.

To be clear: a program without a first stage of numerical goals and
timetable and a second stage with a follow-up survey for additional
contraband following specified methodologies will be a farce.

And we cannot afford a farce.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il