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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Peace Index Poll: Israeli Jews: 50.1% time right to renew Israeli-Palestinian talks, 72.9% talks won't lead to peace in the coming years

The Peace Index ĖSeptember 2014
(N=600)
16-18.09.2014

1. What is your position on holding negotiations for peace between Israel
and the Palestinian Authority?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly in favor 27.8%/53.9%/31.3%
Moderately in favor 27.4%/16.8%/26.0%
Moderately opposed 14.3%/14.4%/14.3%
Strongly opposed 24.7%/12.8%/23.2%
Donít know/Decline to answer 5.7%/2.2%/5.3%

2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly believe 7.8%/15.0%/8.8%
Moderately believe 16.5%/27.6%/18.0%
Moderately do not believe 17.9%/17.9%/17.9%
Do not believe at all 55.0%/36.7%/52.6%
Donít know/Decline to answer 2.7%/2.9%/2.8%

3. How would you define the national mood in Israel at present?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very good 5.1%/4.9%/5.0%
Moderately good 37.1%/29.7%/36.1%
Not so good 41.6%/28.1%/39.8%
Not good at all 12.4%/36.5%/15.6%
Donít know/Decline to answer 3.8%/.7%/3.4%

4. How much trust do you currently have in the Israeli leadership?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I have a lot of trust 11.2%/5.2%/10.4%
Quite a lot of trust 27.0%/16.0%/25.6%
Not so much trust 41.2%/31.4%/39.9%
I have no trust at all 20.0%/38.1%/22.4%
Donít know/Decline to answer .6%/9.3%/1.8%

5. In your assessment, has Israelís national security improved, remained the
same, or been damaged by Operation Protective Edge?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Improved 27.1%/6.2%/24.3%
Remained the same 46.0%/23.4%/43.0%
Been damaged 24.3%/64.9%/29.6%
Donít know/Decline to answer 2.7%/5.5%/3.0%

6. When you look back, taking everything into account, who in your opinion
achieved more in Protective Edge?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Israel 46.0%/4.5%/40.5%
Hamas 12.7%/39.9%/16.3%
The two sides had the same level of achievement 24.6%/18.3%/23.8%
Neither side achieved anything 14.4%/26.3%/16.0%
Donít know/Decline to answer 2.3%/11.0%/3.4%

7. Against the background of the changes now occurring in the Middle East,
including the increased Egyptian involvement in Israel-Palestinian contacts
since the beginning of Operation Protective Edge, in your opinion is the
time right or not right for renewing the Israeli-Palestinian political
negotiations?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Iím sure itís right 20.0%/26.0%/20.8%
I think itís right 30.1%/38.1%/31.2%
I think itís not right 20.7%/19.0%/20.5%
Iím sure itís not right 23.7%/15.3%/22.6%
Donít know/Decline to answer 5.5%/1.6%/5.0%

8. A recent opinion poll found that Hamasís status among the Palestinians
had greatly improved and it would win Palestinian Authority elections if
they were held at present. In light of this, in your opinion should Israel
agree or not agree to include Hamas in the political talks with the
Palestinians?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Iím sure it should not agree 52.7%/10.6%/47.1%
I think it should not agree 19.6%/5.5%/17.8%
I think it should agree 12.6%/26.0%/14.4%
Iím sure it should agree 10.8%/43.5%/15.1%
Donít know/Decline to answer 4.3%/14.3%/5.6%

9. U.S. president Obama declared in a speech to the nation last week that
the United States is mounting an offensive against the radical Muslim
organization Islamic State, which is active in parts of Iraq and Syria. In
your opinion, are the administration and the American people sufficiently or
insufficiently resolved at present to fight Islamic State until victory?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Iím sure theyíre sufficiently resolved 10.4%/22.5%/12.0%
I think theyíre sufficiently resolved 23.3%/17.4%/22.5%
I think theyíre insufficiently resolved 34.1%/25.4%/32.9%
Iím sure theyíre insufficiently resolved 26.1%/29.8%/26.6%
Donít know/Refuse 6.0%/5.0%/5.9%

10. And to what extent, in your opinion, are the members of Islamic State
sufficiently or insufficiently resolved to continue to fight until victory?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Iím sure theyíre sufficiently resolved 66.0%/38.8%/62.4%
I think theyíre sufficiently resolved 16.9%/20.5%/17.4%
I think theyíre insufficiently resolved 6.0%/11.6%/6.7%
Iím sure theyíre insufficiently resolved 5.2%/18.7%/7.0%
Don't know/Decline to answer 5.9%/10.5%/6.5%

11. Recently a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence said that while
Islamic State is indeed an organization that has to be fought, it is not
militarily strong enough to pose an existential danger to Israel. The prime
minister, however, recently referred to the great danger that Islamic State
constitutes. In your opinion, does Islamic State currently endanger or not
endanger Israelís existence?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Iím sure it endangers it 18.4%/30.6%/20.0%
I think it endangers it 20.7%/12.7%/19.6%
I think it does not endanger it 29.7%/18.2%/28.2%
Iím sure it does not endanger it 25.5%/34.9%/26.8%
Donít know/Refuse 5.7%/3.6%/5.4%

Now we will turn to some domestic issues:

12. Reservists from intelligence unit 8200 recently published a letter
stating that they are no longer prepared to serve because some of the unitís
activities contribute to immoral actions, such as the killing of innocent
people and the unnecessary violation of the privacy of Palestinians. In your
eyes is such refusal to serve out of moral concerns acceptable or
unacceptable?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Iím sure itís acceptable 5.1%/69.3%/12.9%
I think itís acceptable 6.6%/4.5%/6.4%
I think itís unacceptable 17.4%/2.6%/15.6%
Iím sure itís unacceptable 64.5%/15.4%/58.6%
Donít know/Refuse 6.3%/8.1%/6.5%

13. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the conduct so far of the party
you voted for in the most recent elections?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very satisfied 22.0%/16.9%/21.3%
Moderately satisfied 30.4%/11.3%/27.9%
Not so satisfied 23.1%/13.6%/21.9%
Not satisfied at all 13.6%/24.7%/15.1%
Donít know/Refuse 4.4%/9.5%/5.1%
I did not vote 6.5%/24.0%/8.8%


14. And to what extent are you satisfied or not satisfied with the conduct
of the Israeli government on the following issues:
Jews
Very satisfied/Moderately satisfied/Not so satisfied/Not satisfied at
all/Donít know/ Decline to answer
14.1 Security 18.3%/43.2%/23.7%/13.3%/1.5%
14.2 Economy 6.6%/21.8%/33.8%/35.6%/2.3%
14.3 Attentiveness to the citizens 7.9%/22.0%/33.0%/33.0%/4.1%

Arabs
Very satisfied/Moderately satisfied/Not so satisfied/Not satisfied at
all/Donít know/ Decline to answer
14.1 Security 18.5%/42.7%/11.7%/25.9%/1.2%
14.2 Economy 6.9%/23.3%/27.8%/38.9%/3.0%
14.3 Attentiveness to the citizens 8.6%/23.5%/22.5%/37.9%/7.5%

General Public
Very satisfied/Moderately satisfied/Not so satisfied/Not satisfied at
all/Donít know/ Decline to answer
14.1 Security 18.3%/43.1%/22.1%/15.0%/1.4%
14.2 Economy 6.7%/22.0%/33.0%/36.0%/2.4%
14.3 Attentiveness to the citizens 8.0%/22.2%/31.7%/33.6%/4.6%

15. And to what extent are you satisfied with your personal situation at
present?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very satisfied 29.9%/30.6%/30.0%
Moderately satisfied 45.1%/42.1%/44.7%
Not so satisfied 16.9%/12.3%/16.3%
Not satisfied at all 7.2%/14.9%/8.2%
Don't know/Decline to answer .9%/0% /.8%

16. And with the general situation of the country?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very satisfied 8.6%/12.9%/9.1%
Moderately satisfied 29.6%/39.5%/30.9%
Not so satisfied 41.0%/27.3%/39.2%
Not satisfied at all 17.5%/15.1%/17.2%
Don't know/Decline to answer 3.3%/5.2%/3.6%

17. As Rosh Hashanah approaches, do you expect your own overall situation in
the coming year to be:
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Much better 13.4%/19.7%/14.2%
A little better 24.8%/16.8%/23.7%
The same 45.2%/32.5%/43.6%
A little worse 5.9%/9.6%/6.4%
Much worse 1.9%/14.3%/3.5%
Don't know/Decline to answer 8.9%/7.1%/8.6%

18. And the general situation of the state of Israel in the coming year will
beÖ?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Much better 7.7%/12.6%/8.3%
A little better 19.8%/8.4%/18.3%
The same 34.5%/28.6%/33.8%
A little worse 16.2%/30.0%/18.0%
A lot worse 7.5%/11.9%/8.0%
Donít know/Decline to answer 14.4%/8.5%/13.6%

The Peace Index: September 2014
Date Published: 23/09/2014
Survey dates: 16/09/2014 - 18/09/2014
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=284#.VCK2JGccSM8

This yearís survey addresses four main issues: retrospective assessments of
Operation Protective Edge, the international community against Islamic State
(ISIS), rating of the Israeli leadershipís performance, and the publicís
sentiments about the new year that is about to begin.

Who achieved more in Operation Protective Edge? In hindsight, the prevailing
opinion in the Jewish public is that Israel achieved more in the campaign
than Hamas (46%); only 13% think Hamas achieved more than Israel. However,
if one adds that minority to the one-fourth of the interviewees who think
the two sides scored equal achievements, along with the 14% who believe that
neither side achieved anything, it appears that over half of the Jewish
interviewees (52%) are ďnot enthusedĒ by the results of the campaign. The
general pattern of responses is similar in the three political campsóright,
center, and leftóbut at different rates as one would of course expect. Among
the Israeli Arabs the prevailing answer is that Hamas achieved more in the
conflict (40%), with only 4.5% saying Israel achieved more.

The operationís effect on national security: In the same vein, to the
question: ďSince the operation has Israelís national security improved,
remained the same, or deteriorated?,Ē the most common answer in the Jewish
public is that it has remained the same (46%), with almost equal rates
saying it has improved (27%) or deteriorated (24%). A segmentation by
political camps shows that this is more or less the general pattern in all
of them, but the rate of those who think the campaign has improved Israelís
security situation is higher on the right than in the center and on the
left. Similarly, the rate of those who think the situation has worsened is
clearly higher on the left than in the center and on the right. Among the
Israeli Arabs, the majority (65%) thinks Israelís security has been damaged
by the operation.

The 8200 protest: During Operation Protective Edge much was said about an
erosion in the Israeli Jewish publicís level of tolerance for atypical views
about the campaign and its justification. Recently reservists of the
intelligence unit 8200 published a letter stating that they are not prepared
to serve any further because some of the unitís actions contribute to
immoral deeds, such as the killing of innocent Palestinians and unnecessary
infringement of Palestiniansí privacy. This letter, the timing of whose
publication just after Operation Protective Edge is no coincidence, does not
evoke sympathy among the overwhelming majority of the Jewish public: 82% say
such refusal to serve on a moral basis is inappropriate. This response
apparently indicates that the discomfort with the operationís results and
concomitant criticism of the Israeli leadership do not stem from concerns
among the general Jewish public about the commission of immoral acts during
the operation, but apparently from much more prosaic concerns, such as the
low rate we found in the previous survey for those who think the operation
had sufficiently clear objectives, while those objectives that were clear
were viewed as having been achieved only to a limited extent. Notably, we
found a majority opposed to the measure taken by the 8200 veterans in all
the political camps, but the size of this majority differs greatly: 90% on
the right, 76% in the center, 58% on the left. Among the Israeli Arabs an
unequivocal majority (74%) sees the action by the Unit 8200 reservists as
appropriate.

Renewing negotiations with the Palestinians? We asked: ďIn light of the
changes now occurring in the Middle East, including the growing Egyptian
involvement in Israeli-Palestinian contacts since the beginning of Operation
Protective Edge, in your opinion is the time right or not right to renew the
political negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians?Ē The responses
indicate a quite even division between those who think the time is right for
such a resumption and those who think it is not, though the rate of those
who favor renewing the talks (50%) is a bit higher than the rate of
opponents (44%). A segmentation of the responses by political camps shows
that, while on the right the rate of supporters of renewing the talks does
not exceed one-third, in the center and on the left an overwhelming majority
supports doing so (78% in the center and almost 90% on the left). About
two-thirds (64%) of the Arab public views the current conditions as
appropriate for renewing the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority.

Negotiations with Hamas: A completely different picture emerges from the
Jewish publicís answers on whether Israel should or should not agree to
include Hamas in the talks with the Palestinians. Here the interviewees were
reminded about an opinion poll finding that Hamasís status had greatly
improved among the Palestinians and that it would win Palestinian Authority
elections if held at present. On this question the positions of the Jewish
public are unequivocal: 72% think or are sure that Israel should not agree
to sit with Hamas at the negotiating table even after Operation Protective
Edge. In other words, negotiations with the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority
are acceptable to a majority, albeit small, of the Jewish public, on
condition that Hamas is not included. On this question most of the political
camps agree, though on the ďhardĒ left only a minority (25%) opposes
negotiating with Hamas. The Arab publicís positions on this issue are a
mirror-image of the Jewish publicís views: a clear majority (69.5%) thinks
Israel should conduct talks with Hamas.

We now move on to positions on the international community against Islamic
State (ISIS).

American determination: The majority (60%) of the Jewish public assesses
that the U.S. administration headed by President Obama and the American
people are not sufficiently determined to fight ISIS until victory. In the
Arab public as well, the majority (55%) views the Americans as not
sufficiently resolved to fight ISIS to the end.

ISISís determination: There is sweeping agreement (83%) in the Jewish public
that ISIS is indeed sufficiently determined to keep fighting until victory.
The rate of those in the Arab public who see ISIS as determined to fight
until victory is indeed lower than among the Jews (59%), but this is still a
clear majority; when assessing the Americansí resolve the majority was in
the opposite direction.

ISIS and Israelís national security. Even though the Jewish public views
ISIS as determined to achieve its goals, it agrees for the most part (55%)
with the position of a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence that
ISIS does not constitute a danger to Israel. However, a large minority of
the Jews (39%) accept the position of the prime minister, who recently spoke
of the great danger that ISIS poses to Israel. Among the Arabs a small
minority (53%) believes that ISIS does not constitute a substantial danger
to Israelís security, though a sizable minority (43%) sees ISIS as
imperiling Israelís existence.

And as for evaluations of the governmentís performance:

Trust in the system: A considerable majority of the Jewish public (61%) does
not currently extend trust to the Israeli leadership. Note that a
segmentation by political camps shows that even among those locating
themselves on the right, slightly over half do not feel trust in the
leadership. In the center this rate comes to about two-thirds and on the
left to about 80%. As for the Arab public, the majority that does not feel
trust in the Israeli leadership is even larger (69.5%).

Level of (dis)satisfaction with the behavior of the party one voted for in
the elections: That trend perhaps also explains why only a small majority
(52%) is satisfied with the behavior of the party they voted for in the 2013
elections. A segmentation of satisfaction by party the interviewee voted for
shows that those most satisfied with their partyís performance so far are
voters for Torah Judaism (93%) and for Meretz (80%). The least satisfied are
voters for Yesh Atid (40% satisfied). Among the Arab interviewees, about
one-fourth said they had not voted in the latest elections (a figure that is
lower than the official figures); however, a relatively high rate (38%) are
not satisfied with their partyís behavior since the elections (compared to
28% who are satisfied).

The governmentís performance: Despite the lack of enthusiasm over the
results of Operation Protective Edge, a majority of the Jewish public
(61.5%) is very or moderately satisfied with the governmentís performance in
the security domain. However, in the fields of the economy and attentiveness
to the citizen, the government gets very low grades: less than one-third of
the Jewish interviewees (28%) are satisfied with the governmentís economic
performance, and the attitude is similar regarding its attentiveness to the
citizens (30%). A segmentation by political camps showed similar
inclinations in all of them.

And as for the new year that is about to begin:

The national mood: A small majority of the Jewish public (54%) characterizes
the national mood in Israel today as not good at all or not so good.

The overall situation of the country: Among the Jewish public, the current
rate of those who are dissatisfied with the situation is quite high (58.5%).
A segmentation by political camps showed that about half of those locating
themselves on the right are dissatisfied with the countryís overall
situation at present, about 60% of those situating themselves in the center,
and about 70% of those placing themselves on the left. Among the Arab
interviewees, actually a larger percentage (52%) expressed satisfaction with
the countryís situation at present.

And in the coming year? The most common response in the Jewish public is
that the countryís situation will remain as it is in the coming year as well
(34.5%). The rate of those who think it will improve comes to 27.5%, while
24% expect it to worsen. As for the Arabs, far more (42%) fear that in the
coming year the countryís situation will deteriorate.

Overall personal situation: Unlike the assessment of the national situation,
where the balance leaned in the negative direction, on the personal level
the rate of satisfaction is higher both relatively and absolutely (Jewsó75%,
Arabsó73%).

And in the coming year? Here too the prevailing feeling among the Jewish
respondents is that the situation will remain the same (45%). Unlike in the
national forecast, however, here the rate of those who think their situation
will improve (38%) is much higher than of those who expect their personal
situation to get worse (8%). The most common assessment among the Arabs was
that oneís personal situation will improve (36.5%).

Peace Indexó41.9 (Jewish sampleó39.8)
==============
The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
on September 16-18, 2014, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey
included 600 respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of
the adult population aged 18 and over. The survey was conducted in Hebrew,
Arabic, and Russian. The maximum sampling error for the entire sample is
Ī4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing was done by Ms.
Yasmin Alkalay.

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