Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll - 54
24 December 2014
Following the war in Gaza, mutual threat perceptions are very high while
Palestinian and Israeli support for the two-state solution and willingness
to compromise go down
7-12 December 2014
http://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/596


This PSR poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer
Foundation in Ramallah

These are the results of the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry
S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew
University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research in Ramallah. This joint survey was conducted with the support of
the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

Following the war in Gaza in the summer of 2014 50% of Israelis and 38% of
Palestinians support a permanent settlement package along the Clinton
parameters and the Geneva Initiative. These results are lower than the
figures in December 2013 when 54% of the Israelis and 46% of the
Palestinians supported the package.

Given the Gaza war and the increasing tensions in Jerusalem and the West
Bank, 47% of Israelis and 36% of Palestinians think that the two sides will
not return to negotiations: 39% of the Israelis and 26% of the Palestinians
think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and some armed
attacks will take place; 8% of the Israelis and 10% of the Palestinians
think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and there will be
no armed attacks. By contrast, in June 2014, 28% of the Israelis and 16% of
the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations
and some armed attacks will take place and 7% of the Israelis and 13% of the
Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to negotiations and
there will be no armed attacks.

At the same time - consistent with previous results - each side perceives
the other side as constituting a threat to its very existence. 58% of
Palestinians think that Israel’s goals in the long run are to extend its
borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean
Sea and expel its Arab citizens. 24% think the goals are to annex the West
Bank while denying political rights to the Palestinians. 37% of the Israelis
think that the Palestinian aspirations in the long run are to conquer the
State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish population in Israel; 18%
think the goals of the Palestinians are to conquer the State of Israel.

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the
West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations
between December 3 and 6, 2014. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli
sample includes 616 adult Israelis interviewed in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian
between December 7 and 12, 2014. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was
planned and supervised by Prof. Ifat Maoz, the Harry S. Truman Research
Institute for the Advancement of Peace, and the Department of Communication,
and Director of the Swiss Center for Conflict Research, Hebrew University of
Jerusalem, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for
Policy and Survey Research (PSR).

MAIN FINDINGS

(A) Conflict management and threat perceptions
Following the war in Gaza in the summer of 2014 and the increasing tensions
in Jerusalem and the West Bank, we asked both sides about their expectations
for the future: 7% of the Israelis and 24% of the Palestinians think that
the two sides will soon return to negotiations. 32% of the Israelis and 37%
of the Palestinians think that the two sides will return to negotiations but
some armed attacks will take place. 39% of the Israelis and 26% of the
Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations and
some armed attacks will take place. Finally, 8% of the Israelis and 10% of
the Palestinians think that the two sides will not return to negotiations
and there will be no armed attacks. In June 2014, 28% of the Israelis and
16% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to
negotiations and some armed attacks will take place and 7% of the Israelis
and 13% of the Palestinians thought that the two sides will not return to
negotiations and there will be no armed attacks.

Among Israelis, 62% are worried and 36% are not worried that they or their
family may be harmed by Arabs in their daily life. Among Palestinians, 82%
are worried and 19% are not worried that they or a member of their family
could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be
confiscated or home demolished.

The level of threat on both sides regarding the aspirations of the other
side in the long run is very high. 58% of Palestinians think that Israel’s
goals are to extend its borders to cover all the area between the Jordan
River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens, and 24% think
the goals are to annex the West Bank while denying political rights to the
Palestinians.

The modal category among Israelis is that the Palestinian aspirations in the
long run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish
population in Israel (37%); 18% think the goals of the Palestinians are to
conquer the State of Israel.

Only 16% of the Palestinians think Israel’s aspirations in the long run are
to withdraw from part (6%) or all (10%) of the territories occupied in 1967
after guaranteeing its security. 33% of Israelis think the aspirations of
the Palestinians are to regain all (17%) or some (16%) of the territories
conquered in 1967.

At the same time: 11% of the Israelis say the aspirations of Israel are to
withdraw to the 1967 borders after guaranteeing Israel’s security. 32% say
the aspirations of Israel in the long run are to withdraw from parts of the
territories after guaranteeing Israel’s security. 18% say they are to annex
the West Bank without granting political rights to the Palestinians living
there. 13% say the aspirations of Israel in the long run are to annex the
West Bank and expel the Palestinians living there.

Among the Palestinians 38% say that the aspirations of the Palestinian
Authority and the PLO are to regain some of the territories conquered in the
1967 war. 31% say the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority in the long
run are to regain all the territories conquered in the 1967 war. 14% say
they are to conquer the State of Israel and regain control over the pre 1948
Palestine. 12% say the aspirations of the Palestinian Authority in the long
run are to conquer the State of Israel and destroy much of the Jewish
population in Israel.



(B) Attitudes, perceptions and expectations regarding a permanent settlement

Clinton/Geneva Parameters

The Clinton parameters for a Palestinian-Israeli permanent settlement were
presented by President Clinton at a meeting with Israeli and Palestinian
officials on December 23, 2000, following the collapse of the July 2000 Camp
David summit. The Geneva Initiative, along similar lines, was made public
around the end of 2003. These parameters address the most fundamental issues
which underlie the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: (1) Final borders and
territorial exchange; (2) Refugees; (3) Jerusalem; (4) A demilitarized
Palestinian state; (5) Security arrangements; and (6) End of conflict. We
address these issues regularly since December 2003, and in the current poll
we revisited these crucial issues, amidst a turbulent Middle East and the
recent war in Gaza.

50% of Israelis and 38% of Palestinians support a permanent settlement
package along the Clinton parameters. The results are lower than the figures
in December 2013 (54% support among Israelis and 46% support among
Palestinians).
Since 2003, we observed only once majority support for such a settlement on
both sides: in December 2004, shortly after the death of Arafat. The level
of support then was 64% among Israelis and 54% among Palestinians.

Below we detail support and opposition to the individual items in the
Clinton / Geneva permanent status package.

(1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange

Among Palestinians 45% support or strongly support and 54% oppose or
strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank
that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in
accordance with a map that was presented to the Palestinian respondents. The
map was identical to that presented to respondents in December 2013, when
support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 52% and opposition at
48%.

Among Israelis 41% support and 47% oppose a Palestinian state in the
entirety of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip except for several large
blocks of settlements in 3% of the West Bank which will be annexed to
Israel. Israel will evacuate all other settlements, and the Palestinians
will receive in return territory of similar size along the Gaza Strip. In
December 2013, 44% of the Israelis supported this component while 48%
opposed it.



(2) Demilitarized Palestinian State

Among Palestinians 28% support and 71% oppose the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a
strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to
ensure its security and safety. Israel and Palestine would be committed to
end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise
received in December 2013 28% support and opposition reached 71%.

This item receives the lowest level of support by Palestinians, as in
previous polls. Unlike the refugees and Jerusalem components, this issue has
not received due attention in public discourse, as it should, since it may
become a major stumbling block in the efforts to reach a settlement.

Among Israelis 59% support and 33% oppose this arrangement compared to 60%
support and 33% opposition obtained in December 2013.



(3) Jerusalem

Among Palestinians 29% support and 71% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in
which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with
Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish
neighborhoods coming under Israeli sovereignty. The Old City (including al
Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception
of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli
sovereignty. In December 2013, an identical compromise obtained 32% support
and 68% opposition.

Among Israelis, 32% support and 59% oppose an arrangement in which the Arab
neighborhoods in Jerusalem including the old city and the Temple Mount will
come under Palestinian sovereignty, the Jewish neighborhoods including the
Jewish quarter and the Wailing Wall will come under Israeli sovereignty.
East Jerusalem will become the capital of the Palestinian state and West
Jerusalem the capital of Israel. In December 2013, similarly, 37% supported
this arrangement and 56% opposed it.



(4) Refugees

Among Palestinians 40% support and 58% oppose a refugee settlement in which
both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and
242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These
are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the
Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no
restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas.
Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and
Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its
decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to
third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees
would be entitled to compensation for their “refugeehood” and loss of
property. In December 2013, 46% agreed with an identical compromise while
52% opposed it.

Among Israelis 36% support such an arrangement and 48% oppose it. In
December 2013, 39% supported it and 50% opposed.



(5) End of Conflict

In the Palestinian public 61% support and 37% oppose a compromise on ending
the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is
fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further
claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and
Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. In December 2013, 63%
supported and 36% opposed this item.

In the Israeli public 64% support and 27% oppose this component in the final
status framework. In December 2013, similarly, 66% of the Israelis supported
it while 28% opposed it.



(6) Security Arrangements

In the Palestinian public 46% support and 53% oppose a compromise whereby
the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and
airspace, but Israel would have the right to use the Palestinian airspace
for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the
West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the
Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of
time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the
implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and
coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international
crossings. In comparison, in December 2013, 52% of the Palestinians
supported this parameter while 48% opposed it.

In the Israeli public 49% support and 37% oppose this arrangement compared
to 52% who supported it and 39% who opposed it in December 2012.



The Whole Package

Among Palestinians 38% support and 60% oppose the whole package combining
the elements as one permanent status settlement. In December 2013, 46%
supported and 53% opposed such a package.

Among Israelis 50% support and 40% oppose all the above features together
taken as one combined package. In December 2013, 54% supported and 37%
opposed such a package.

We asked the Palestinians who opposed the full package how they would react
if Israel, as part of the permanent peace package, also accepted the Arab
Peace Initiative and the Arab states supported in return the peace treaty.
23% said they would in this case change their mind and accept the full
package and 68% said they would not change their mind.



(C) Negotiation Tracks on the Agenda

The Saudi Plan
27% of the Israelis and 43% of the Palestinians support the Saudi peace
plan, 63% of the Israelis and 53% of the Palestinians oppose it. In June
2014, 29% of the Israelis and 50% of the Palestinians supported the Saudi
peace plan, 64% of the Israelis and 46% of the Palestinians opposed it. The
plan calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with
Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and
after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli
retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank,
Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian
state. The refugee problem will be resolved through negotiations in a just
and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return,
all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will
sign peace treaties with Israel and establish normal diplomatic relations.

The Israeli-Palestinian Track
Dismantling settlements - 42% of the Israelis support and 50% oppose the
dismantling of most of the settlements in the West Bank as part of a peace
agreement with the Palestinians.
58% of Israelis and 48% of Palestinians support the establishment of a
Palestinian state alongside Israel, known as the two-state solution and 37%
of Israelis and 51% of Palestinians oppose it. In June 2014, 62% of Israelis
supported a two-state solution and 34% opposed it; 54% of Palestinians
supported it and 46% opposed it.
Mutual Recognition - As we do periodically in our joint polls, we asked
Israelis and Palestinians about their readiness for a mutual recognition as
part of a permanent status agreement and after all issues in the conflict
are resolved and a Palestinian State is established. Our current poll shows
that 54% of the Israeli public supports such a mutual recognition and 36%
opposes it. Among Palestinians, 39% support and 60% oppose this step. In
June 2014, the corresponding figures were similar to the current poll, 52%
of the Israeli public supported such a mutual recognition and 38% opposed
it. Among Palestinians, 40% supported and 59% opposed this step.





Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)
Off Irsal street, P.O.Box 76, Ramallah , Palestine , Tel: +970-2-2964933
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email: pcpsr@pcpsr.org