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Thursday, January 1, 2015
Weekly Commentary: No Future as Security Burden

Weekly Commentary: No Future as Security Burden

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 1 January 2015

Here’s the paradox:

If we made every possible concession to the Palestinians so that a sovereign
Palestinian state actually came into being we would ultimately find
ourselves facing even move pressure to make concessions.

I’ll walk you through it:

Stage #1 Ongoing Palestinian violations of weapons restrictions

+ Third party “Treaty Facilitating Force” (TFF) opts to ignore the
violations raising tension between the countries/bodies associated with the
TFF and Israel

+ Palestinian state files complaints with TFF against Israel for violating
Palestinian sovereignty in the course of collecting evidence of Palestinian
violations of weapons restrictions.

+ Foreign officials counsel Israel to abandon its insistence on Palestinian
compliance and instead apply the “quiet for quiet” principle Israel accepted
for Gaza (absolutely no limit on the weapons that can be deployed once
successfully smuggled in and/or locally manufactured).

Stage #2 Terror attacks originating from the Palestinian state with press
releases explaining that the attacks are in response to grievances against
Israel

+ Israel warned to allow the Palestinian state to handle the incidents and
not to violate Palestinian sovereignty.

+ TFF reports that Palestinian state working with due diligence.

+ Terror attacks continue.

+ Israeli actions in response

+ Palestinian state forces respond to Israeli violations of Palestinian
sovereignty.

+ Calls for an “end to the cycle of violence” and for Israel to address the
grievances raised by the Palestinian state.

+ TFF suffers casualties. TFF either withdraws completely or adopts a
“three monkeys approach” (see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil) for self
preservation.

+ Even more pressure on Israel to address Palestinian grievances.

Please take note: the above scenario is optimistic as it doesn’t account
for the possible involvement of non-Palestinian Arab/Moslem forces and
countries that turn the Palestinian state into a bridgehead for preparing
for the invasion and destruction of the Jewish State.

At each step in this catastrophic development, Israel would most certainly
be counseled to show restraint and address whatever new grievances that can
be cooked up.

And at each step Israel would be pressured to defer to the TFF while at the
very same time nations contributing manpower to the TFF would resent that
they are suffering casualties “defending Israel’s security” in a conflict
they ultimately attribute to Israel’s refusal to satisfactorily resolve
Palestinian grievances.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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