[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: This poll features several questions that
require a tremendously dangerous leaps of faith: "appropriate security
arrangements"
I would strongly recommend that pollsters add a second question whenever
they ask such a question: "do you believe that appropriate security
arrangements exist"?]

8. Which of the following two possibilities would, in your opinion, better
ensure the future of the state of Israel?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Annexation of the territories and the establishment in the entire territory
of one state under Israeli rule
41.0%/29.4% /39.1%
A division of the land and the establishment of an independent Palestinian
state beside the state of Israel
43.1%/58.8%/45.7%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.9%/11.8%/15.2%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

The Peace Index – December 2014
(N=600)
29-31/12/2014

1. What is your position on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly in favor 32.0%/73.3%/38.9%
Moderately in favor 23.6%/16.4%/22.4%
Moderately opposed 12.6%/0.7%/10.6%
Strongly opposed 22.4%/5.7%/19.7%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 9.3%/3.8%/8.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%


2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly believe 10.2%/53.3%/17.3%
Moderately believe 20.1%/20.4%/20.1%
Moderately do not believe 20.2%/13.9%/19.2%
Do not believe at all 45.1%/11.6%/39.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.4%/0.8%/3.8%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

3. In your view, did the political situation in Israel justify or not
justify dissolving the Knesset and declaring new elections?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I’m sure it justified it 18.6%/40.7%/22.3%
I think it justified it 18.2%/29.7%/20.1%
I think it did not justify it 23.9%/18.7%/23.1%
I’m sure it did not justify it 31.4%/5.9%/27.1%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.9%/4.9%/7.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

4. Between the following two issues, which is the issue that will determine
which party you vote for in the upcoming elections?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
The party’s stance in the political-security area 32.8%/28.8%/32.1%
The party’s stance in the socioeconomic area 40.6%/35.6% /39.8%
Both to the same extent (do not read) 18.0%/11.7%/17.0%
Other/Neither of those (do not read) 4.7%/11.2%/5.8%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.9%/12.6%/5.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%


5. Who, in your opinion, is best suited out of all the following individuals
to serve as Israel’s next prime minister?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Netanyahu 34.4%/8.9%/30.2%
Herzog 17.7%/10.1%/16.5%
Bennett 10.5%/3.3%/9.3%
Kahlon 4.2%/4.9%/4.3%
Liberman 5.3%/2.5%/4.9%
Lapid 2.6%/2.6%/2.6%
Livni 6.3%/10.5%/7.0%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 18.9%/57.3%/25.3%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

6. In your view, which bloc of parties has the greatest chance to form the
government after the upcoming elections?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
The right-wing bloc 59.8%/18.8%/53.0%
The center-left bloc 24.4%/51.9%/28.9%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.8%/29.4%/18.0%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

7. And which bloc would you want to form the government after the upcoming
elections?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
The right-wing bloc 54.8%/15.7%/48.3%
The center-left bloc 32.5%/63.3%/37.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 12.7%/21.0%/14.0%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

8. Which of the following two possibilities would, in your opinion, better
ensure the future of the state of Israel?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Annexation of the territories and the establishment in the entire territory
of one state under Israeli rule
41.0%/29.4% /39.1%
A division of the land and the establishment of an independent Palestinian
state beside the state of Israel
43.1%/58.8%/45.7%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.9%/11.8%/15.2%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

9. Recently more and more European parliaments have been calling on their
governments to officially recognize the Palestinian state. In your opinion,
does recognition of a Palestinian state before a peace agreement has been
signed contribute to Israel’s national interest or damage it?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Contributes to the Israeli national interest 10.0%/20.1%/11.7%
Damages the Israeli national interest 69.8%/34.3%/63.9%
Does not affect the Israeli national interest 12.9%/23.2%/14.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.2%/22.4%/9.8%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

10. What is your opinion on the following statement: even in return for a
permanent peace settlement under U.S. sponsorship, which would include
appropriate security arrangements, not even some of the settlements in Judea
and Samaria should be evacuated.
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly agree 30.0%/18.7%/28.1%
Moderately agree 17.7%/21.8%/18.4%
Don’t agree so much 17.5%/26.9%/19.1%
Don’t agree at all 29.0%/19.8%/27.5%
Don't know/Decline to answer 5.8%/12.7%/7.0%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

11. And what is your opinion on the statement that in the framework of a
permanent peace settlement under U.S. sponsorship, which would include
appropriate security arrangements, the Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem
could be transferred to Palestinian control?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly agree 18.1%/17.4%/18.0%
Moderately agree 19.7%/27.0%/20.9%
Don’t agree so much 14.9%/24.7%/16.6%
Don’t agree at all 40.9%/16.0%/36.8%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.3%/15.0%/7.8%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

12. In your opinion, to what extent should Israel take into account the
United States’ position when it makes decisions on political-security
issues?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Not at all 18.7%/30.7%/20.7%
Quite little 31.8%/28.6%/31.3%
Quite a lot 30.4%/15.8%/28.0%
A great deal 15.5%/12.8%/15.0%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 3.6%/12.1%/5.0%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

13. Some say it makes no difference who forms the next government and what
its policy will be; the peace process with the Palestinians is stalled and
there is no chance that it will advance in the foreseeable future. What is
your
opinion on that statement?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly agree 37.3%/19.3%/34.3%
Moderately agree 23.3%/31.4%/24.7%
Don’t agree so much 16.4%/18.5%/16.7%
Don’t agree at all 18.5%/20.5%/18.9%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.5%/10.3%/5.5%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

14. On the political-security issue, where is each of the following parties
located: on the right, in the center, on the left, or are the party’s
positions on this issue unclear at the moment?
Habayit hayehudi (headed by Naftali Benett)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 72.2%/22.7%/64.0%
Center 7.0%/10.2%/7.5%
Left 3.1%/18.1%/5.6%
Not clear at the moment 8.9%/44.1%/14.8%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 8.7%/4.9%/8.1%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Meretz (headed by Zehava Gal-on)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 6.2%/10.7%/6.9%
Center 3.2%/21.1%/6.2%
Left 72.2%/21.6%/63.8%
Not clear at the moment 7.4%/42.9%/13.3%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.9%/3.6%/9.7%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Kulanu (headed by Moshe Kahlon)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 21.8%/9.1%/19.7%
Center 30.8%/17.9%/28.7%
Left 4.7%/21.5%/7.5%
Not clear at the moment 25.2%/49.2%/29.2%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 17.4%/2.3%/14.9%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Yesh Atid (headed by Yair Lapid)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 7.7%/15.3%/9.0%
Center 46.5%/17.7%/41.7%
Left 23.8%/15.0%/22.4%
Not clear at the moment 14.4%/45.9%/19.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.5%/6.2%/7.3%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

The joint Labor-Hatnuah list (headed by Herzog and Livni)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 4.9%/11.5%/6.0%
Center 26.4%/16.1%/24.7%
Left 50.3%/20.2%/45.3%
Not clear at the moment 10.1%/45.8%/16.0%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 8.3%/6.4%/7.9%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Shas (headed by Aryh Deri)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 41.4%/18.9%/37.7%
Center 23.3%/15.2%/22.0%
Left 7.1%/19.8%/9.2%
Not clear at the moment 16.6%/40.9%/20.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 11.5%/5.3%/10.5%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Ha'am Itanu (headed by Eli Yishai)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 52.1%/13.0%/45.6%
Center 10.8%/18.0%/12.0%
Left 1.7%/13.2%/3.6%
Not clear at the moment 18.1%/50.1%/23.4%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 17.3%/5.6%/15.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Likud (headed by Binyamin Netanyahu)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 70.5%/21.9%/62.5%
Center 12.0%/14.6%/12.4%
Left 3.9%/17.5%/6.1%
Not clear at the moment 6.9%/41.7%/12.7%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.7%/4.3%/6.3%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

Yisrael Beiteinu (headed by Avigdor Lieberman)
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Right 51.4%/20.2%/46.3%
Center 19.3%/10.3%/17.8%
Left 4.8%/16.8%/6.8%
Not clear at the moment 17.2%/46.4%/22.0%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 7.2%/6.3%/7.0%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

15. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming elections?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I’m sure I will 75.4%/49.2%/71.1%
I think I will 14.1%/12.9%/13.9%
I think I won’t 3.3%/14.3%/5.1%
I’m sure I won’t 3.5%/21.3%/6.5%
Don't know/Decline to answer 3.7%/2.2%/3.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

6. (Only for those who said “I think I will” or “I’m sure I will”) Have you
already decided which party you will vote for?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Yes 58.7%/63.6%/59.3%
No 40.0%/33.8%/39.3%
Don't know/Decline to answer 1.2%/2.6%/1.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

17. (Only for those who said “I think I won’t” or “I’m sure I won’t”) What
is the main reason that you think or are sure that you will not vote?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
There is no party whose positions accord with my opinions
13.2%/22.5%/20.0%
It makes no difference who one votes for because it does not change the
situation anyway
37.2%/25.8%/28.9%
It is hard for me to get to the voting booth where I have to vote
6.0%/5.7%/5.8%
I won’t be in Israel on the day of the elections
10.7%/2.8%/5.0%
Other 30.8%/22.1%/24.5%
Don't know/Decline to answer 2.2%/21.1%/15.9%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
on December 29-31, 2014, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey
included 600 respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of
the adult population aged 18 and over. The survey was conducted in Hebrew,
Arabic, and Russian. The maximum measurement error for the entire sample is
±4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing was done by Ms.
Yasmin Alkalay.


The Peace Index: December 2014
Date Published: 07/01/2015
Survey dates: 29/12/2014 - 31/12/2014
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=287

The picture that emerges from the Peace Index survey conducted on December
29-31 (before the results of the Likud primaries were announced) indicates
that the right remains the dominant political force among the Jewish public.

Who will set up the next government? About 60% of the Jewish public thinks
the right-wing bloc has a better chance to establish the new government
while only 24% believe the chances of the center-left bloc are better. When
we asked which bloc the interviewees preferred to establish the next
government, the gap had indeed narrowed a bit but the clear preference for
the right remained: 55% preferred a right-wing government compared to 32.5%
who preferred a center-left one. A comparison between the two questions
shows that there are some who prefer a center-left government but still view
the right as having better chances.

The prevailing position (52%) in the Arab public is that the center-left
bloc has the better chance to form the next government, and an even higher
rate (63%) also prefers that it be the bloc to do so.

To which bloc do the Jewish parties belong? Less than three months before
the elections it appears that the various parties’ positions on the
political-security issue are not completely clear. The two parties most
identified in the Jewish public with the political-security right are Bayit
Yehudi led by Naftali Bennett (72%) and Likud led by Binyamin Netanyahu
(70.5%). Two other parties that are perceived by a certain majority as
right-wing, though not as decisively as the two previous ones, are Ha’am
Itanu led by Eli Yishai (52%) and Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman
(51%). Shas led by Aryeh Deri is also more perceived as right-wing (41%)
than as a centrist (23%) or leftist (7%) party. The parties most identified
with the left are Meretz led by Zehava Galon (72%) and Labor-Hatnuah (the
Zionist Camp) led by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni (50%). Only two parties
are identified by the highest rate as centrist on the political-security
issue, though in these cases, too, not overwhelmingly so: Yesh Atid led by
Yair Lapid (center—46.5%, left—24%, right—8%) and Kulanu led by Moshe Kahlon
(center—31%, right—22%, left—5%). The data show, therefore, that the Jewish
public is not sure about the political-security location of a considerable
portion of the parties, especially with regard to (in order) Kulanu (not
clear—25%), Ha’am Itanu (18%), Yisrael Beiteinu (perhaps because of what is
being said about Lieberman’s “centralization”), and Shas (17% each).

An interesting and somewhat disturbing finding in terms of political
literacy is that among the Arab interviewees the highest rate of respondents
(41%-50%) said, regarding each of the Jewish parties they were asked about,
that it was not clear to them where it was located on the political-security
right-center-left spectrum.

Who is best suited to serve as the next prime minister? The dominance of the
right is also clearly evident in the Jewish interviewees’ answers to this
question. At the top of the list is Netanyahu with a preference rate of 34%.
Although that is not a high rate in absolute terms, it certainly stands out
compared to other candidates; the next highest preference rate is Herzog’s
at 18%. In other words, the rate of those who see Herzog as the best-suited
candidate for the prime minister’s post is about half the rate of those who
see Netanyahu as most qualified to serve in the position, something that
does not augur well for Herzog and his associates. In third place is Naftali
Bennett with a preference rate of 10.5%, while Tzipi Livni comes in fourth
with 6%. That is, the two leaders of the clearly right-wing parties—Likud
and Bayit Yehudi—are preferred by 45% of the Jewish public while the two
prominent leaders of the center-left bloc receive a joint preference rate of
only 24% (the other leaders who were presented to the
interviewees—Lieberman, Kahlon, and Lapid—each won a few percentage points
from those who prefer that they head the government, not changing the
overall picture). There is, then, a leader who is definitely preferred, but
he too does not enjoy the preference of more than one-third of the public, a
low rate considering that he is an incumbent candidate.

The clear preference that the right-wing bloc enjoys among the Jewish public
seems to raise a question about the fact that a much larger number (41%)
said that the issue determining which party they will vote for is the
socioeconomic one (only 33% chose the political-security issue as
electorally decisive for them). For this seeming contradiction there are at
least two explanations that do not preclude each other. First, it may be
that many still believe that the right is better suited than the center-left
to deal with the national problems in the socioeconomic area as well.
Second, it is possible that the preference for the socioeconomic issue is
merely a “declarative statement” that is influenced by the prominence given
this issue in the media discourse, while on the emotional level the public
is closer to the political-security domain and will vote accordingly.

Among the Arab respondents the highest rate chose the socioeconomic issue as
deciding which party they will vote for (36%, compared to 29% who chose the
political-security issue). However, a high percentage (24%) either said that
another issue will influence their electoral preference or that they do not
know what will influence them one way or the other. As for the candidate
best suited to serve as prime minister, a majority (57%) of the Arab
interviewees declined to respond or did not know; this is consistent with
their difficulty in locating the Jewish parties on the political-security
right-center-left spectrum, as we reported above. Among those who did have a
preference regarding the identity of the candidate for prime minister, Livni
and Herzog received the highest rates (10% for each) while the rest of the
candidates received smaller rates.

Was there a need to hold new elections and do you intend to vote? A majority
of the Jewish public (55%) thinks the political situation in Israel did not
justify holding new elections. The tendency to deny the need for elections
is consistent with the prevailing assessment that the new government, too,
will likely be formed by the right-wing bloc. As for taking part in the
elections, a very large majority (89.5%) declared an intention to vote, of
whom 75.4% reported that they are sure they will vote. On the question of
whether the voters have already decided which party to vote for, it turns
out that 59% have already decided while 40% have not yet done so. The
various parties, then, can still try to convince a considerable percentage
of the “floating” voters to give them their vote. At the same time, taking
into account the perception of bloc affiliation of the parties we have
reported on, it appears that, for the undecided, the choice of whom to vote
for will mainly be between the parties perceived as belonging to the same
bloc and not between parties belonging to different blocs. That is, if there
are changes in the voters’ preferences, it appears that they will be mainly
within blocs and not between blocs.

Among the Arabs, whose level of support for the current government has been
low throughout its tenure, a clear majority (70%) sees the holding of new
elections as justified. In our survey 62% of the Arab respondents said that
they were sure or that they thought they would go to vote, and of these
about two-thirds had already decided which party to vote for.

What is the preferred solution to the problem with the Palestinians? In the
Jewish public we found a balance between, on the one hand, the rate who
think that even for a peace agreement worked out under U.S. sponsorship that
would include appropriate security arrangements, not even part of the
settlements in Judea and Samaria should be evacuated (48%), and on the
other, the rate of those who disagree with that position (46.5%). A balance
also emerges in the responses to the question of which possibility would
better ensure the future of the country: annexation of the territories and
the establishment of a single state under Israeli rule (41%) or a division
of the land and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state beside
Israel (43%). However, a majority of the Jewish public (56%) now opposes the
idea that in the framework of a permanent peace settlement under U.S.
sponsorship that would include appropriate security arrangements, rule over
the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem could be transferred to the
Palestinians.

We wanted to know to what extent, in the Israeli public’s opinion, Israel
should take into account the U.S. position on questions concerning a
solution of the conflict with the Palestinians. About half of the Jewish
public (50.5%) thinks Israel should not take it into account or should do so
only a little. Conversely, 46% believe that the U.S. position should be
taken into account to a great or a very great extent. In the Arab public,
which apparently regards the United States as an actor that does not promote
its interests, a majority (59%) thinks Israel should not take the Americans
into account regarding its policy on the conflict. Given that most of the
Jewish public prefers the right-wing bloc, the numerical balance between the
supporters and opponents of a territorial compromise apparently indicates
that some of the right’s supporters in fact prefer the two-state solution,
but think the right can better represent Israel’s interests in
permanent-status negotiations. In any case, a majority of the Jewish public
(61%) thinks that no matter who sets up the next government and whatever
policy it adopts, the peace process with the Palestinians is stalled and
there is no chance of it progressing in the foreseeable future. In the Arab
public the rate of those who think the situation is at a standstill is in
fact somewhat smaller than among the Jews (51%), but it is higher than the
rate of those who think there is a chance of progress in the negotiations in
the foreseeable future (39%).

The involvement of international actors: A large majority of the Jewish
public (70%) thinks the growing trend among European parliaments to call on
their governments to officially recognize a Palestinian state before a peace
agreement is reached damages Israel’s national interests. This figure
indicates that even among supporters of a two-state solution, the majority
does not think the initiative of these Europe parliaments is beneficial to
Israel. This position is more widespread, as one would expect, among those
identifying themselves as right-wing or in the center (74% in both camps),
but even on the left the rate of those who think the European initiative
harms Israel’s national interests (53%) is considerably higher than the rate
of those who believe it contributes to those interests (28%).

Negotiations indexes: General 50.7 (Jews 44.4)


The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
on December 29-31, 2014, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey
included 600 respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of
the adult population aged 18 and over. The survey was conducted in Hebrew,
Arabic, and Russian. The maximum measurement error for the entire sample is
±4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing was done by Ms.
Yasmin Alkalay.