The Peace Index – May 2015
1-4/06/2015
(N=600)
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=292

1. What is your position on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly in favor 29.4%/62.4%/34.9%
Moderately in favor 33.1%/8.4%/29.0%
Moderately opposed 17.5%/3.5%/15.2%
Strongly opposed 15.1%/4.1%/13.3%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.9%/21.6%/7.7%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly believe 6.4%/10.0%/7.0%
Moderately believe 19.4%/29.8%/21.1%
Moderately do not believe 31.8%/17.5%/29.4%
Do not believe at all 41.1%/33.3%/39.8%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 1.3%/9.5%/2.7%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

3. Recently Defense Minister Yaalon announced an experiment where Arab
workers from the territories would no longer be allowed to travel from or to
their homes in buses shared with Jews who live in the territories. What is
your opinion on this separation:
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly in favor 26.2%/4.1%/22.5%
Moderately in favor 25.9%/6.8%/22.7%
Moderately against 21.2%/25.5%/21.9%
Strongly against 20.5%/44.9%/24.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.3%/18.7%/8.3%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

4. If you could now receive better housing at a low price in a Jewish
settlement in the territories, would you be prepared to move there?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I’m sure I would 8.1%/7.8%/8.1%
I think I would 14.2%/17.9%/14.8%
I think I wouldn’t 19.7%/1.0%/16.6%
I’m sure I wouldn’t 55.6%/66.8%/57.5%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 2.3%/6.5%/3.0%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

5. Have you visited one or more Jewish settlements in the territories over
the past five years?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Yes 50.3%/40.6%/48.7%
No 48.2%/55.2%/49.3%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 1.5%/4.2%/1.9%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

6. Some in Israel call for a consumer boycott within Israel on goods
produced in the territories so as to exert pressure on the government and on
the settlers. If such a boycott were to be organized, would you or would you
not buy goods produced in Jewish settlements in the territories?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I’m sure I wouldn’t buy them 8.6%/19.8%/10.5%
I think I wouldn’t buy them 8.1%/9.4%/8.3%
I think I would buy them 17.4%/29.6%/19.4%
I’m sure I would buy them 61.6%/29.4%/56.3%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.3%/11.8%/5.5%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

7. The prime minister recently told the foreign minister of the European
Union that he is prepared to begin negotiations with the Palestinians on the
borders of the settlement blocs in the territories. In your opinion, does
this declaration mean Netanyahu is prepared to consider an agreement that
would entail giving up the settlements that are outside the blocs?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I’m sure he’s prepared 6.6%/1.1%/5.7%
I think he’s prepared 29.2%/6.8%/25.5%
I think he’s not prepared 32.2%/12.2%/28.8%
I’m sure he’s not prepared 20.6%/44.6%/24.6%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 11.5%/35.3%/15.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

8. How would you define Israel’s relations at present with the countries of
the world in general?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very good 2.4%/7.2%/3.2%
Moderately good 26.4%/51.0%/30.5%
Not so good 51.0%/13.5%/44.8%
Not good at all 17.7%/7.2%/15.9%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 2.6%/21.2%/5.7%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

9. Some claim that the countries of the world make demands on Israel for
moral behavior that they do not make on other countries that are in
situations of conflict. Do you agree or disagree with this claim?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly agree 46.8%/10.6%/40.8%
Moderately agree 24.1%/14.7%/22.5%
Don’t agree so much 12.4%/18.7%/13.4%
Don’t agree at all 14.2%/7.3%/13.1%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 2.5%/48.7%/10.2%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

10. To what extent are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the distribution of
cabinet posts in the new government?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very satisfied 3.6%/0.8%/3.2%
Moderately satisfied 19.0%/7.8%/17.1%
Not so satisfied 27.4%/15.0%/25.3%
Not at all satisfied 34.4%/21.9%/32.3%
Don’t know/Decline to answer 15.6%/54.5%/22.1%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

11. Some claim that the way in which Netanyahu distributed the cabinet posts
in the government was aimed at weakening his competitors among the promising
young Likud members of Knesset, such as Gilad Erdan. If this was really
Netanyahu’s intention, in your opinion did he succeed or not succeed to
weaken his competitors in the party?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
I’m sure he succeeded 13.1%/14.7%/13.3%
I think he succeeded 29.7%/11.8%/26.7%
I think he didn’t succeed 23.1%/10.8%/21.1%
I’m sure he didn’t succeed 8.5%/3.5%/7.7%
Don’t know/Refuse 25.6%/59.2%/31.2%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

12. In the context of forming the new government, Netanyahu took the
foreign-minister portfolio for himself but distributed the responsibilities
that, in the past, were in the foreign minister’s hands among several other
ministers (the deputy foreign minister, the strategic affairs minister, the
public diplomacy minister, the intelligence affairs minister, the regional
cooperation minister, and others). In your opinion, will this distribution
be beneficial or not be beneficial to Israel’s ability to manage its
diplomatic affairs and foreign relations well?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
It will be very beneficial 5.7%/0.8%/4.9%
It will be moderately beneficial 19.4%/14.4%/18.5%
It will not be so beneficial 23.6%/10.7%/21.4%
It will not be beneficial at all 38.2%/15.0%/34.3%
Don’t know/Refuse 13.2%/59.0%/20.9%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

13. Do you agree or disagree with the claim that Netanyahu took the
foreign-minister portfolio for himself so that he will be able to give it to
the leader of the Zionist Union party, Herzog, should the conditions emerge
to add this party to the coalition?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Strongly agree 11.1%/6.1%/10.3%
Moderately agree 25.6%/22.1%/25.0%
Don’t agree so much 24.6%/18.0%/23.5%
Don’t agree at all 20.1%/3.1%/17.3%
Don’t know/Refuse 18.6%/50.6%/23.9%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

14. And what, in your opinion, are the chances that the Zionist Union will
in fact join the Netanyahu-led coalition in the foreseeable future?
Jews/Arabs/General Public
Very low chances 32.1%/8.9%/28.3%
Moderately low chances 39.4%/27.9%/37.5%
Moderately high chances 13.5%/15.1%/13.8%
Very high chances 5.4%/3.7%/5.1%
Don’t know/Refuse 9.5%/44.4%/15.4%
Total 100.0%/100.0%/100.0%

The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
on June 1-4, 2015, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey included 600
respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of the adult
population of Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum measurement error for the
entire sample is ±4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing
was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay. http://www.peaceindex.org/

The Peace Index: May 2015
Date Published: 08/06/2015
Survey dates: 01/06/2015 - 04/06/2015

This month the Peace Index survey focused on three issues: attitudes toward
Jewish settlement in the territories, the diplomatic arena, and the
distribution of cabinet posts in the government.

Support for separation: Over half of the Jewish public (52%) currently
supports implementing a separation between Jewish and Palestinian passengers
on buses in the territories, in the vein of the experiment that Defense
Minister Moshe Yaalon recently announced. Conversely, 42% oppose such a
separation, which would entail forbidding Arab workers from the territories
to ride from or to their homes in the same buses as Jews who live in the
territories. An analysis of the responses by voting for the Knesset in the
latest elections (Jews) reveals that the greatest support for separation is
found among Shas (93%), Jewish Home, and Likud voters (73% each), and the
lowest support among Zionist Union (19%) voters. As expected, a large
majority (70%) of the Arabs oppose separation in buses.

Opposition to a consumer boycott of the settlements: On the question of
whether they would or would not buy goods produced in the Jewish settlements
were a consumer boycott to be organized in Israel, a large majority of the
Jews (79%) responded that, even if there was such a boycott, they would buy
goods originating in the settlements. A segmentation by voting for the
Knesset shows that only among Meretz voters does the majority (71%) say they
would join a boycott of settlement products. For all the other parties, only
a minority of the voters say they would support such a boycott. However, a
59% majority of the Arabs responded that if a consumer boycott of settlement
products were to be organized, they would not buy such products.

Lack of desire to move to the territories: A clear majority (75%) of the
Jews said they are sure or they think that, even if they could now receive
improved housing at a low price in a Jewish settlement in the territories,
they would not move there. In other words, for a large part of the Israeli
Jewish public, the identification with the settlement enterprise is similar
to Zionist Jews in the Diaspora who identify with Israel from afar. A
segmentation of the responses by age group showed that even among the young
and medium age groups, who probably are the most burdened by housing costs,
the rate who would be interested in moving to the territories, even if they
were offered improved housing conditions, is currently no higher than one
quarter of the respondents. Somewhat surprisingly, income did not play a
role on this question.

Visits to Jewish settlements in the territories: Furthermore, when asked
“Have you visited one or more Jewish settlements in the territories over the
past five years?” only half of the Jewish respondents answered positively
while almost the same rate (48%) answered negatively. Lacking a basis for
comparison, it is hard to assess whether this is a high or a low rate
relative to earlier periods. It is also hard to know the reason for this
distribution of responses—that is, whether the 48% who do not visit refrain
from doing so on principle or for other reasons. At the same time, it is
difficult to ignore the fact that, in actuality, about half of the Jewish
public goes for quite a long period without visiting settlements.

The chances of an agreement based on an evacuation of the territories: In
light of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recently expressed position, in his
meeting with the European Union foreign minister, that he is prepared to
begin negotiations with the Palestinians about the borders of the settlement
blocs, we asked: “In your opinion, does this statement mean that Netanyahu
is prepared to consider an agreement that would entail giving up the
settlements that are outside the blocs?” The majority of the Jews (53%)
responded that they are sure or they think Netanyahu is not prepared for
such a concession, while about one‐third (36%) answered that they are sure
or they think he is prepared for it.

Israel’s relations with the world: It appears that the Jewish public is
aware of the deterioration that has occurred in Israel’s international
status. This awareness seemingly stems from the intensification of voices
calling to boycott Israel and its institutions. A large majority (69%)
characterize Israel’s relations with the countries of the world as not good
at all or not so good, with only 29% viewing these relations as moderately
good or very good. A segmentation of the responses by voting for the
Knesset in the latest elections reveals that the highest rates of those
characterizing Israel’s relations with the world negatively are found among
Yesh Atid (88%) and Meretz (83%) voters. Among the Arab respondents, a
reverse majority (58%) regards Israel’s relations with the world as very
good or moderately good. This may accord with, or even stem from, the
widespread view in the Palestinian street that despite the criticism of
Israel, ultimately the countries of the world accept its policy as evidenced
by the fact that they do not act against it even when this is possible.

The moral demands on Israel: A clear majority (71%) of the Jewish public
agrees with the assertion that “The countries of the world make demands for
moral behavior on Israel that they do not make on other countries that are
in situations of conflict.” In other words, we again find the widespread
sense in the Jewish public that “The whole world is against us.” Here we
found a majority of the voters for all the parties, though it is highest
among voters for Yesh Atid and Jewish Home (about 80%) and smallest among
Meretz (50%) voters.

The distribution of cabinet posts in the government: Overall, a considerable
majority (62%) of the Jewish public is dissatisfied with the distribution of
cabinet posts in the new government (only 22% are satisfied). A segmentation
of the
responses by voting for the Knesset reveals a majority for the satisfied
only among Torah Judaism (59%) voters. Even among Likud voters the rate of
the satisfied is lower than that of the dissatisfied (36% vs. 46%).

The division of the foreign minister’s powers: The view is also negative on
Netanyahu’s decision to take the foreign‐minister portfolio for himself,
while dividing a considerable part of the powers that previously belonged to
the foreign minister among other ministers (strategic affairs, intelligence,
regional cooperation, etc.). Sixty‐two percent of the Jewish respondents
believe this division will not improve Israel’s ability to manage its
diplomatic affairs. As for the question of whether Netanyahu, with his
distribution of cabinet posts, succeeded to weaken his competitors in the
party if that was indeed his intention, 43% think that he did while
one‐third think the opposite.

Is Netanyahu waiting for Herzog? Only 37% of the Jews agree with the
assertion that Netanyahu took the foreign‐minister portfolio for himself so
that he could eventually give it to the leader of the Zionist Union party,
Isaac Herzog, if conditions emerge for its joining the coalition. A
considerably higher rate of respondents (45%) think that was not the reason.

Is the Zionist Union on the way to the coalition? Regarding the chances that
the Zionist Union will indeed join the Netanyahu‐led coalition in the
foreseeable future, the public’s position is clear‐cut: 71.5% see very low
or moderately low chances of this. Among the voters for Zionist Union
itself, there is almost a complete consensus that at present the party is
not headed toward joining the coalition (87%), though a majority of voters
for other parties hold that view as well.

Negotiations index: 47.9 (Jews 45.3).
==============
The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
on June 1-4, 2015, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey included 600
respondents, who constitute a representative national sample of the adult
population of Israel aged 18 and over. The maximum measurement error for the
entire sample is ±4.1% at a confidence level of 95%. Statistical processing
was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.