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Sunday, June 28, 2015
UPDATE on sarcastic Observation: 99% tax for lottery wins would leave morally obscene return of 12 million percent

UPDATE on sarcastic note:

Dear Reader - since all the replies I have received today are from readers
who think that I am actually endorsing a 99% tax on lottery winnings, I want
to make it clear that the purpose of the comment was to put the issue of the
return on investment for Israeli offshore oil and gas exploration in
context.

There is a populist view that looks at the ex-post "windfall" enjoyed by
those who invested in Israeli offshore oil and gas exploration as immoral.
As if the ex-post rate of return to their investment should be compared to
the average rate of return on investments in the country. This view ignores
that the investment in Israeli offshore oil and gas exploration was very
much a tremendously expensive "lottery ticket" investment.

No one is suggesting that the State cover the losses of companies that
invest in Israeli offshore oil and gas exploration and fail to discover oil
and gas in profitable quantities.

And until Noble Energy and the others had the good fortune that their
lottery ticket "won" everyone who risked their money "bought" a losing
ticket.

So dear reader, if you think that the investors who risked money in the
Israeli offshore oil and gas exploration lottery should, ex-post, enjoy a
rate of return based on the rate of return for solid investments then by
the same token you should support a tax in excess of 99% on lottery
winnings.

I don't.

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Observation: 99% tax for lottery winswould leave morally obscene return of
12 million percent
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 28 June 2015

The money raised by Mifal Hapais, the organization running the national
lottery, is the public's money raised for worthy projects for the benefit of
the public.

And yet, while this money is supposed to go to worthy projects, last year
NIS 802,925,228 went to the private pockets of people who won the lottery.

To be clear: the cost of a two entries on a lottery card that can win a
minimum of NIS 7 million is only NIS 5.80. To make matters worse, for an
investment of a paltry NIS 11.60 for two entries in the double lotto, the
winner takes away at least NIS 14 million from Mifal Hapais funds that could
otherwise be used for the benefit of the public.

Yes, lottery winnings are now treated by the tax authorities as regular
income, but even if we consider the tax revenue as a benefit to the public,
we are still talking about a completely unreasonable payoff to the
investment. This when the money could otherwise go to the public benefit.

Sure, lottery players were enticed to buy the lottery tickets, that have an
extremely low probability of winning, by the huge prize.

But that was BEFORE they won.

After these lottery winners actually win the lottery surely a pay off of NIS
1,000 or a particularly generous NIS 10,000 is a return to investment
magnitudes greater than any other investment return.

A 99% tax on the first prize of the lottery would leave the regular lottery
player with a whopping NIS 70,0000 - a return of a morally obscene 12
million percent.

This, in a nutshell is the underlying logic at play in the debate over the
treatment of the companies that invested in the Israeli offshore oil and gas
exploration lottery.

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