US regional allies who are concerned about America's led nuclear pact with
Iran and America's limited military engagement in Iraq and Syria could see
any step away from the Sinai as further evidence that President Barack Obama
wants out of the Middle East.
The future of the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai
The US is concerned over deteriorating security conditions in an area of
northeastern Sinai where Egyptian security forces as well as civilian and
military elements of the MFO are exposed to potential risk. The main threat
is the jihadist group "Wilayat Sinai". What will the future hold? Dr. Shaul
Shay explains the situation
Dr. Shaul Shay | 1/09/2015
http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/future-multinational-force-and-observers-sinai

The deterioration of security conditions in North Sinai since the July 2013
coup that toppled Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi on one hand and the
stability of the Egyptian-Israeli relations on the other hand, has led ‎some
to question the continued deployment of the Multinational Force and
Observers (MFO) in Sinai.‎

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said that "The US is concerned over
deteriorating security conditions in an area of northeastern Sinai where
Egyptian security forces as well as civilian and military elements of the
MFO, including the US military forces stationed at the MFO North Camp, are
exposed to potential risk," he said.

"Wilayat Sinai"

The main threat is the "Wilayat Sinai" – a jihadist group that was known as
Ansar Beit al-Maqdis until it declared itself in November 2014, a "province"
of the so-called "Islamic State"/ISIS. The group has demonstrated improved
capabilities against Egyptian security forces, deploying vehicle-borne IEDs,
suicide bombers, and antitank missiles against police and military targets,
and even hitting a navy patrol boat.

"Wilayat Sinai" group has increasingly threatened the MFO forces: On June 9,
2015, it fired a rocket at the MFO's al-Gorah base. On July 26, 2015, two
MFO vehicles were caught in crossfire during an attack on an Egyptian
security checkpoint. An Egyptian soldier was injured during the attack, but
there were no reports of injuries among MFO personnel. "Wilayat Sinai" group
has also fired mortars and planted improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on
roads that the MFO uses.

For this reasons, some US officials believe it might only be a matter of
time before "Wilayat Sinai" executes a major attack on the MFO.

The Multinational Force and Observers (MFO)

Under the security protocol of the Camp ‎David peace accords signed by Egypt
and Israel in 1979, the MFO was founded in 1981 to supervise the security
arrangements established by the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. The MFO’s
mandate is limited to ‎monitor the limitations on military forces and
equipment within the four zones demarcated in Article II of Annex I, and
also monitors freedom of navigation through the Straits of Tiran.

The MFO carries out this mission by operating checkpoints and observation
posts in Sinai and along the international boundary, and by conducting
periodic verifications of the treaty's enforcement. The MFO’s mission does
not include combat tasks.

Twelve countries take part in the MFO and contribute 1,700 personnel: The
US, which contributes the logistical support battalion ‎SPTBATT and an
infantry battalion USBATT. Some 700 members of an Army battalion and
logistics support unit are currently in Sinai. The other countries are
Norway, New Zealand, Italy, France, Fiji, the ‎Czech Republic, Columbia,
Canada, Australia, Hungary and Uruguay.

The MFO has two camps in Sinai. The largest, located in Al-Gora, about 20 km
south of the ‎Mediterranean coast, is where the MFO command is based. Its
function is to provide for all the ‎operative and logistical needs of the
peacekeeping forces and observers.

The second camp overlooks the Red Sea. Though smaller, it is equipped to
support a military unit ‎the size of an enhanced battalion.‎

The multinational peacekeeping force had a budget of $82.6 million in 2014,
and the fiscal year ‎ended with a $606,000 deficit. The funding gap is
expected to increase to $9 million by 2016 ‎and $20 million by the end of
the 2020 fiscal year, according to sources cited by the New York ‎Times.‎

It is important to note that the direct expenses of the MFO are funded in
equal parts by the United States, Israel, and Egypt. Nations (other than the
United States) do not contribute funds to the MFO and are

The Wilayat Sinai's increased capabilities and sophistication, significantly
endangers the MFO operation that was previously considered very low-risk.
Armed primarily with light weapons and armored personnel carriers the MFO
forces lack the capacity to take on The Wilayat Sinai or other militants
across the sparsely populated, desert territory.

As a result of the deterioration in the security condition in Sinai, the MFO
has responded by hardening the MFO's positions and focusing on force
protection. Improved sensors and barriers as well as additional guard towers
have been erected around MFO outposts and peacekeepers have received weapons
upgrades.

Throughout this uncertain period, the MFO facilitated bilateral cooperation
between Israel and Egypt and, in the face of a burgeoning Sinai insurgency,
even secured Israel's permission for Egyptian troop deployments that
exceeded the peace treaty's limitations.

Summary

The MFO still has an important role ‎to play and the existence of the MFO is
necessary even more under the unstable conditions in the region. The
Egyptian and Israeli governments view the MFO as an important mechanism for
facilitating bilateral coordination and cooperation. Egypt-Israel relations
have “warmed” under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s administration, and
Israel has waived some of the treaty’s provisions on multiple occasions to
allow more Egyptian troops in Sinai to fight terrorist groups.

From a legal standpoint it is Egypt and ‎Israel, as the main parties to the
peace treaty, and the US as its sponsor and the major partner in ‎the MFO,
which have the final say on the status of the peacekeeping forces.

The Egyptian army is responsible for protecting the MFO. Egypt is committed
to its role with respect to the MFO and does not ‎want to see the forces
withdrawn and nor does Israel. According to Egyptian sources there has been
no official complaint from either the MFO or from the ‎states that
contribute forces and security issues were not raised.‎

US officials said the Obama administration has been conducting an
"interagency review" of the US posture in the Sinai. Options range from
beefing up their protection or even pulling them out. Without the U.S.
contingent, it is unlikely the MFO, would be able to sustain itself much
longer.

One of ISIS’s objectives in Sinai includes regional destabilization of the
balance and the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel. Therefore the
withdrawal of the MFO will be considered as a victory of the Islamic state
and other extremists and a blow for the US allies in the region.

US regional allies who are concerned about America's led nuclear pact with
Iran and America's limited military engagement in Iraq and Syria could see
any step away from the Sinai as further evidence that President Barack Obama
wants out of the Middle East.