Excerpts: Iran's problems re Syria. Planned Riyadh conference for Syrian
opposition. Beijing nightmare smog shuts factories. Assad: France supports
terrorism.Obama to Turkey,Russia focus on IS.King:'Terrorism has no
borders'. Lebanon's next president Assad ally ? December 1, 2015

+++al Arabiya News 1 Dec,’15:”Iran’s bad gamble on Syria”, by Dr. Andrew
Bowen
SUBJECT: Iran problems re Syria
QUOTE:”the loss of Iran’s main strategist and public face of Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei’s campaign to shore up Presiden Bashar al Assad’s government in
Damascus would certainly be a costly blow to Iran’s regional ambitions”

FULL TEXT:With growing reports that Iran’s notorious Quds Force Commander
Qassem Soleimani has suffered debilitating injuries, the loss of Tehran’s
main strategist and public face of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s campaign to
shore up President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Damascus would certainly
be a costly blow to Iran’s regional ambitions.

Despite Soleimani’s initial victories against ISIS, Tehran’s campaign has
been a costly military gamble for ultimately a political solution, which
Iran may no longer be in a position to shape.

Soleimani’s visit to Moscow for increased assistance in the campaign may
have been necessary for Tehran – but it was a strategic and mortal
miscalculation for Soleimani personally and for the Supreme Leader. Tehran’s
room for maneuver has been substantially curtailed by President Putin’s
military move to shore up Assad and concurrently, his diplomatic hardball in
Vienna. While the Russian President’s military move hasn’t produced the full
gains that he may have first expected, Putin’s diplomacy has reaped
substantial dividends.

Putin eclipses Khamenei
Instead of Tehran being seen as the key broker to a settlement on Syria,
Putin has positioned himself as the holder of Assad’s future. From King
Abdullah of Jordan to President Obama to Prime Minister Netanyahu, it’s not
Tehran that world leaders go to for a deal on Syria, but Moscow.

Putin’s terms for a settlement are arguably more palatable for regional
states that see Iran’s motives in Syria as opportunistically sectarian.

Putin’s terms for a settlement are arguably more palatable for regional
states that see Iran’s motives in Syria as opportunistically sectarian.
Moscow’s actions in Syria are perceived then as strategically driven and,
critically, negotiable. Russia’s commitment as well to fighting ISIS has
created space for a dialogue between Russia and regional and global powers
over how to more robustly address this security challenge.

Iran has played a very well-resourced hand quite poorly in contrast to
Russia, which has played a weak, low resourced hand quite well. For a
fraction of the cost of Iran’s expenditures on Syria, Putin has a window of
opportunity now at the Vienna talks to reach a settlement of Syria’s civil
war, where President Assad, after a period of constitutional reform, would
agree to new presidential and parliamentary elections. In contrast to Iran –
which has a lot less room to maneuver on an alternative Syrian Presidential
candidate to Assad – Moscow has more options, including current Ba’athist
officials and senior Syrian army officers.

Unlike Russia, which has had a decades-old relationship with the Syrian army
and Syria’s Sunni, Alawi, and Christian communities, Ayatollah Khameini’s
main relationship is with President Assad and to a lesser degree with the
Alawite community and the security and intelligence services that resent
Iran’s new position in Syria. While Russia’s candidate for Syria’s
Presidency may secure some of Iran’s interests, such a candidate will not be
as beholden to Tehran as Assad is.

Iran’s fait accompli
Putin is more likely to force a settlement on Assad that would prevent him
from running for another term, compared with Tehran, which has no clear
alternative candidate at present. The Russian President has a limited window
to demonstrate that Russia is a global power that the U.S., Europe, and
regional states need to work with. While Obama may see the Vienna talks as a
process that doesn’t necessarily need to finish at the end of his
presidency, Putin needs to show domestically and internationally that these
talks, brokered in part by his administration, is the only avenue for peace.
The Russian President has no intention of being dragged into a quagmire in
Syria.

For Ayatollah Khamenei, his room to oppose such a settlement, if Russia is
able to bridge the gaps with the GCC and Turkey, is narrow. He may seek to
turn this costly bad gamble around by trying to play hardball with Putin to
reach a settlement more favorable to him, but the costs of the conflict (as
evidenced by his own lead commander lying in a hospital bed) and Khamenei’s
own need for Russian assistance to prop up Assad may check such moves.
Khamenei may also make the call that going up against Russia on Syria is too
dangerous a risk at this point, as Iran operates in a post-nuclear deal
environment. Russia is, critically, one of the main sellers of the arms and
military technology that Iran needs. To further expand Iran’s military
capabilities in the region, the Supreme Leader can’t completely alienate
Putin.

Iran is therefore more likely to accept a bitter fait accompli with Russia
than make a further bad gamble that derails the Vienna talks.

___________
Andrew Bowen, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow and the Director of Middle East
Studies at the Center for the National Interest.


+++SOURCE: Saudi Gazette 1 Dec.’15:” Saudi invites Syrian opposition ahead
of talks”,by Reuters
SUBJECT: Planned Riyadh conference for Syrian opposition
QUOTE:” Saudi Arabia…conference in Riyadh to try to unify their
(opposition)positions ahead of the proposed Syrian peace talks”
FULL TEXT:Saudi Arabia has issued invitations to 65 Syrian opposition
figures to attend a conference in Riyadh to try to unify their positions
ahead of proposed Syrian peace talks, Saudi newspapers reported on Tuesday[1
Dec].

Asharq al-Awsat and al-Hayat said no date has yet been set for the Riyadh
meeting, but quoted unnamed sources as saying it could take place next week.

Asharq al-Awsat quoted Ahmed Ramadan, a member of the Syrian National
Coalition (SNC) opposition group, as saying that the Saudi foreign ministry
had “invited 65 figures to attend the conference in Riyadh.”

He said 20 members of the coalition, which is based outside Syria, had been
invited, along with seven from the National Coordination Body, an internal
opposition group.

Another 10 to 15 places were allocated to rebel leaders and 20 to 25 to
independents, business leaders and religious figures, the paper quoted
Ramadan as saying.

Saudi Arabia, a main supporter of opposition groups seeking to topple
President Bashar al-Assad, has said it was in contact with them about the
conference, which comes after an international agreement to launch talks
between the government and the opposition by Jan. 1.

The Riyadh meeting marks an attempt to bring together groups whose disunity
has been a long-standing obstacle in seeking a peaceful solution to the
nearly five-year conflict that has killed more than 250,000 people and
displaced millions.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held talks in Abu Dhabi with United Arab
Emirates officials and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir last week to
discuss ways of bringing the opposition together.

Al-Hayat newspaper quoted NCB co-chairman, Hassan Abdul-Azim, as saying he
had sent a list of 22 nominees, including the head of the Kurdish Democratic
Union, Saleh Muslim.

Muslim had said earlier last month that Syrian Kurds need political and
military representation at the opposition conference in Riyadh.



+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 1 Dec.’15:”BeijingFactories Shut amid Smog
Nightmare”, by Agence France Presse
SUBJECT:Beijing nightmare smog shuts factories

QUOTE:”choking smog reached over 25times safe levels 1Dcc”

FULL TEXT Beijing ordered hundreds of factories to shut and allowed children
to skip school as choking smog reached over 25 times safe levels on
Tuesday,[1 Dec] casting a cloud over China's participation in Paris climate
talks.

A thick grey haze shrouded the capital with concentrations of PM 2.5,
harmful microscopic particles that penetrate deep into the lungs, as high as
634 micrograms per cubic metre.

The reading given by the U.S. embassy dwarfs the maximum recommended by the
World Health Organisation, which is just 25 micrograms per cubic metre

Swathes of northern China were hit and levels in Jinan, a provincial capital
hundreds of kilometres away, reached over 400.

Authorities in Beijing ordered the closure of 2,100 highly polluting
businesses, the state-run China Daily said, and advised citizens to stay
indoors.

The capital told primary and middle schools to stop outdoor activities and
gave students permission to stay home, adding the city would provide online
instruction, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Airlines cancelled over 30 flights from Beijing and Shanghai, many to highly
polluted Shaanxi province which is a key coal producer.

The smog nightmare came after Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed "action" on
greenhouse emissions at the climate change summit in Paris.

Most of the country's greenhouse gas emissions come from coal burning which
spikes in winter along with demand for heating and is the main cause of
smog.

Xi repeated China's pledge that emissions would peak by "around 2030" but
told the summit that poor nations should not have to sacrifice economic
growth.

China is estimated to have emitted nearly twice as much carbon dioxide as
the United States in 2013, and around two and a half times the European
Union's total.

Even official news media joined in the criticism, with Xinhua posting on
Twitter: "Breathless. Speechless."

Twitter is blocked in mainland China, where pollution is a key cause of
discontent with the ruling Communist party, and Chinese-language reports
were more circumspect.

Environmental group Greenpeace said in a statement the pollution showed the
"weakness" of Beijing's air quality alert system.the city only issued an
orange alert, the second highest on the four-colour scale.

A red alert would require schools to close and ban half the city's cars from
its streets.

"The shocking levels of air pollution we have seen in the last few days are
a serious danger to the health of hundreds of millions of citizens,"
Greenpeace said.The capital's "insufficient alerting system has compounded
the problem", it added.

One angry resident wrote on Chinese Twitter equivalent Sina Weibo: "I think
they are concerned about the high costs of a red alert and the difficulties
of implementing it."

+++SOURCE:Naharnet (Lebanon) 1 Dec.’15:”Wyria’s Assad Accuses France of
‘Supporting Terrorism’,By Agence France Presse
SUBJECT:Assad: France supports terrorism

QUOTE:” ‘He has been the problem –he cannot be the solution’ Hollande said”

FULL TEXT:Syrian President Bashar Assad accused France of "supporting
terrorism" and said he saw Prague as a possible venue for signing any future
peace deal to end his country's four-year civil war, in comments broadcast
Monday[30 Nov] on Czech TV.

In an interview due to be aired in full on Tuesday,[1 Dec] the Syrian
strongman was asked whether he could see a peace deal being signed in
Prague, as Czech President Milos Zeman had suggested in September.

"Naturally, if you ask Syrians they will tell you they don't want a peace
conference in France, for example, because France supports terrorism and
war, not peace," he said on the CT public station.

"And as you mention Prague, it would be generally accepted because of the
balanced position of your country."

As the last diplomatic outpost of the West in Syria, the Czech embassy has
become a hub for confidential U.S. and EU communication with the Damascus
regime amid moves aimed at ending the four-year conflict.

France has been adamant in its opposition to Assad, describing him as a
"butcher" of his own people and on Monday[30 Nov] Foreign Minister Laurent
Fabius said working with the Syrian army to fight the Islamic State group
was not on the cards until he was removed.

On a trip to Washington last week, French President Francois Hollande and
reiterated his determination to see Assad step down in order to give Syria a
chance for peace, saying "it should be as soon as possible."

"He has been the problem -- he cannot be the solution," Hollande said.

Syria's conflict began as a peaceful pro-democracy revolt in 2011 that later
morphed into a multi-front civil war after Assad's regime unleashed a brutal
crackdown against dissent.

SourceAgence France Presse

+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 1 Dec.’15:”Obama calls on
Turkey,Russia to Focus on ‘Common Enemy’IS”, byAgence France Presse
SUBJECT: Obama to Turkey,Russia focus on IS

FULL TEXT:U.S. President Barack Obama called on Russia and Turkey to move
beyond a furious row over the downing of a fighter jet and focus on the
Islamic State jihadist group, after meeting his Turkish counterpart in Paris
on Tuesday[1 Dec.].

Relations between Moscow and Ankara have plummeted in the past week after
Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet along the Syrian border.

Russia has announced economic sanctions and advised its citizens not to
visit Turkey.

"I want to be very clear: Turkey is a NATO ally. The U.S. supports Turkish
rights to defend itself and its airspace and its territory," Obama told
reporters after meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"We all have a common enemy and that is ISIL and I want to make sure we
focus on that threat," Obama said, using an alternative name for the Islamic
State group.

Erdogan said he was keen to move past the dispute.

"We are always willing to resort to the diplomatic language (...) we want to
avoid the tensions," he said.

The United States and its allies are concerned the Turkey-Russia spat could
further complicate efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis in
Syria, where Russia and Turkey support opposing sides.

Obama met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday[30 Nov] on the
sidelines of the climate summit in Paris.

"President Obama expressed his regret for the recent loss of a Russian pilot
and crew member," a White House official said after their closed-door
meeting.

Hours earlier, Turkey had sent back to Russia the body of a pilot killed
when his plane was shot down by the Turkish air force on November 24 for
allegedly violating its air space on the Syrian border, reports said.

Putin accused Ankara of seeking to protect IS oil exports -- an important
source of funds for the jihadist group.

"We have every reason to think that the decision to shoot down our plane was
dictated by the desire to protect the oil supply lines to Turkish territory,
right to the ports where it is loaded onto tankers," Putin said during a
news conference on the fringes of the climate talks in Paris.

One of the Russian pilots aboard the downed plane was shot dead in Syria
after parachuting from the burning aircraft, while the second was found safe
and sound. One Russian soldier was killed in a rescue operation.

SourceAgence France Presse

+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 1 Dec.’15:”Climate change cannot be addressed in
isolation – King”,by JT”
SUBJECT: King:Terrorism has no borders
QUOTE”His Majesty King Abdullah … said the war of ‘our generation’ against
terrorism …is ‘also our fight within Islam’ “
EXCERPTS:AMMAN — His Majesty King Abdullah on Monday[30 Nov.] said the war
of "our generation" against terrorism and to defend the values of tolerance,
peace and freedom is "also our fight within Islam", according to a Royal
Court statement.

In remarks at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, hosted in
Paris, the King said: "It is a war we are reminded of every day, in Syria,
Iraq, Mali, Egypt, Lebanon, France, Nigeria, Somalia, Kenya, Saudi Arabia
and more. Terrorism has no borders."

"Climate change cannot be addressed in isolation. No geographical region, no
economic sector can protect itself from the impact of global threats," His
Majesty added, stressing Jordan's commitment to contribute to international
efforts to counter the phenomenon.

"To achieve the future we seek, there must be comprehensive, collective,
sustainable global action — action that gets results. Jordan pledges our
continuing cooperation, for our own people’s future, and the future of our
shared world," said the King, who returned home later on Monday[30 Nov].


+++Source; Jordan Times 1 Dec.’15:”In unexpected twist, Assad ally may be
Lebanon’s next president”, by Reuters

SUBJECT Lebanon’s next president,Assad ally ?

EXCERPTS:The idea of Suleiman Franjieh, a childhood friend of Assad,
becoming head of state has taken aback many Lebanese, not least because of
who tabled it: Saad Al Hariri, a Sunni politician who leads an alliance
forged from opposition to Syrian influence in Lebanon. He would become prime
minister under the deal.

It is no less startling because of the backing it would require from Saudi
Arabia and Iran, rival states that wield decisive influence over Lebanon's
competing factions and which are in conflict elsewhere in the region,
including in Syria.

As the war escalates in Syria, with Iran and Saudi Arabia increasing their
support for Assad and his enemies, a new deal for Lebanon seems unlikely to
signal any broader understanding to settle regional conflicts.

=======================
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA