Russia Digging In for Long Haul in Syria
By Matthew Bodner 12 p.m. EST December 13, 2015
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/12/13/russia-digging-long-haul-syria/77148866/

MOSCOW — Russia is digging in for the long haul in Syria. Whereas two months
ago Russian officials insisted the Kremlin's military adventure in the
shattered Arab republic would last no longer than a few months, the Defense
Ministry is gradually surging its force strength in the country.

Analysts told Defense News that the gradual expansion of Russia's air
contingent reflects that Russia's ultimate goal in Syria — to forestall the
demise of President Bashar Assad, or at least his Alawite government — is
proving harder to reach than initially anticipated.

“Some kind of enlargement of the Russian contingent was almost inevitable
from the beginning, but the pace of enlargement is a matter of
interpretation … many experts said that from the beginning it was not
enough,” said Ruslan Pukhov, a member of the Defense Ministry's public
advisory board.

When Russia began air operations in Syria on Sept. 30, the contingent that
was deployed to a Syrian air base in Latakia was rather limited, featuring
about 30 fixed-wing aircraft and some 20 helicopters. The idea was to
provide forces loyal to Assad with air support to push back extremist and
rebel forces that have been fighting the government for four-and-a-half
years.

“War has its own dynamics,” Pukhov said. “Things on the ground are not going
well — Assad's Army is tired, the Iranians are not very skilled and the
rebels they are fighting are quite experienced. If Assad's forces would have
been more successful, probably there would be no need.”

While Russian air support appears to have helped Assad regain lost
territory, gains made by the Islamic State group and various rebel groups
since Russia's operation began resulted in a net territorial gain of just
0.4 percent, according to a report issued by IHS Jane's in mid-November.

After six weeks of operations, Russia doubled the size of its air group,
which is bombing targets in Syria by launching long-range bomber sorties
from an air base in southern Russia, a decision that provided combat
experience for Russia's long-range aviation branch of the Air Force.

It is not yet clear whether the long-range bombers, which include up to 25
aircraft of the Tu-22M3, Tu-160 and Tu-95 types, have helped turn the fight
further in Assad's favor.

In a speech last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied claims that
Russia is in Syria to pursue wider geopolitical goals, such as asserting its
role as a major world power.

“Our actions are not dictated by some abstract, vague, geopolitical
interests,” Putin said. “We are not testing our new weapons or demonstrating
our might, which of course is also important … but the main thing is to
protect Russia.”

The decision to introduce the strategic bombers to the mix was driven
apparently by the Russian security services' classification of the downing
of a Russian civilian jet over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula as an act of terror —
possibly in retaliation for Russia's involvement in Syria.

But Robert Lee, a former US Marine now working as a visiting fellow at the
Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, said there
are very practical reasons why Russia might have begun using strategic
bombers in Syria.

“I have a feeling that they have a lot of dumb bombs, and some of these
bombs are more easily dropped from a Tu-22 operating out of Russia than
shipping all of that to Syria by ship, and then loading onto planes to drop
those same bombs,” Lee said.

While this falls in line with Russia's insistence that it will not become
involved in a ground war in Syria, the Kremlin is now reacting to other
events surrounding the civil war, leading to the deployment of additional
air-defense systems and even more ground forces to protect its assets.

After the downing of a Russian Su-24 fighter bomber on the Turkish-Syrian
border last month, Russia deployed S-400 air defense systems to Latakia,
ostensibly to protect Russian aircraft, and giving Russia a defense range
covering the majority of Syria.

In his speech, Putin said: “I want to warn anyone who might again try to
organize a provocation against our troops.

"Any targets threatening the Russian air grouping or our land infrastructure
should be immediately destroyed."

The size of Russia's naval force sitting off the coast of Syria has also
doubled to include some 10 ships, including the Moskva guided missile
cruiser, outfitted with air defense systems that also cover most of Syria
and overlap into Turkish airspace, and ships capable of firing Kalibr cruise
missiles.

There have also been a number of reports in the Russian and international
media indicating that Russia is preparing to deploy to two additional air
bases in Syria — perhaps signaling a greater expansion of forces.

The Defense Ministry last week denied these reports, characterizing them as
speculation by “armchair strategists” who don't appreciate the fact that
from Latakia a Russian aircraft can get to any location in Syria within 30
to 40 minutes.

However, analysts speculated that there are several reasons Russia might be
beefing up dilapidated Syrian air bases.

“They may expand their air contingent, and having multiple air bases could
indicate they definitely intend to, or simply have contingency plans in case
that becomes necessary — you can't build an airbase overnight — or else have
alternative staging locations, especially for operations in the east,” said
Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian security and military affairs at New
York University.

Lee said there are less dramatic reasons to establish additional bases, such
as to improve search-and-rescue capabilities in the event of downed
aircraft — a concern that drove US military thinking in Iraq and
Afghanistan, according to the Marine.

“If they are conducting operations down there, and they want to have the
combat search-and-rescue capability, you want to be closer to wherever the
planes are operating rather than not because the farther away you are, the
slower your response time is, and one of the big things for us in Iraq and
Afghanistan was the concept of the golden hour," Lee said.

While there have been reports that up to 5,000 Russian personnel are now in
Syria, and that Russian T-90 tanks have been seen outside of their base in
Syria, analysts continue to discount the possibility of a true Russian
ground operation.

“At most, [these additions] reflect a recognition that there is going to be
no quick resolution,” Galeotti said. “I don't think there is any indication
of any change to Russia's endgame, which is some kind of process allowing
not so much Assad but the bulk of the Alawite regime to survive, and with it
Moscow's influence in the region.”

Email: mbodner@defensenews.com

Twitter: @mattb0401