Weekly Commentary: Excerpts from my worry list
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 March 20016

I'd like to take this opportunity to share with you some excerpts from my
worry list.

1. Gaza Strip
1.1 With intelligence estimates that there are at least ten large capacity
tunnels crossing from the Gaza Strip into Israel, what does Hamas have
planned? How about sending scores of teams to seriously damage critical
infrastructure - water, electricity, port cranes, etc. and facilities whose
destruction causes disasters (for example chemical storage tanks).
1.2 If the point is reached that the Security Cabinet decides that it is
imperative to destroy the Hamas regime, will the IDF pull a reasonable game
book off the shelf or will they opt instead to kill the idea by presenting
exaggerated casualty and cost projections?

2. Obama vision of "solution" adopted by UN Security Council resolution to
replace 242.
2.1 Israeli reaction to the move effectively thwarted by cabinet decisions
to form committees to study proposed responses rather than actually
responding.
2.2 Palestinians clever enough to exploit the Obama UNSC resolution via a
series of moves we completely failed to anticipate.

3. F-35
3.1 Technical failure requires worldwide grounding of F-35's when IAF
already relying on the platform.
3.2 Limits on the supply of replacement F-35 "sealed gizmos" (gizmos the IAF
can only replace - not repair) effectively slashes the Jewish State's
options when facing a critical security challenge.
3.3 Iran purchases and deploys the Russian and/or Chinese jets already
equipped to track and destroy the not-so-stealth F-35's.

4. Hezbullah
4.1 Israeli threats to bomb Lebanon into the stone age fail to deter an
attack - this given that Iran could readily bankroll the rapid restoration
of Lebanon.
4.2 Hezbullah successfully delivers on its threats to seriously damage
Israeli infrastructure and cause disasters (attacking the ammonia storage,
etc.) in a blitz using capabilities we failed to anticipate.

5. PA security forces
5.1 Western trained and equipped PA forces in literally hundreds of squads
simultaneously attack different critical Israeli targets.

6. Regime change in Egypt, Jordan, other neighbors
6.1 Huge strategic military capabilities suddenly turned against the Jewish
State.

I would like to believe that our leaders are not only worrying but also
effectively addressing these and other concerns.

Unfortunately, there are grounds to fear that this is not the case.
________________________________________
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Arab-Israeli relations

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