78% say the Arab World is too preoccupied with its own concerns, internal
conflicts, and the conflict with Iran and that Palestine is no longer the
Arab’s principal or primary issue or cause. Only 20% think Palestine remains
the Arab’s principle cause.
59% believe that there is an Arab Sunni alliance with Israel against Iran
despite the continued Israeli occupation of Arab land while 30% believe that
the Arabs would not ally themselves with Israel until it ends its occupation
and allows the creation of a Palestinian state.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (60) - PRESS RELEASE
7 June 2016
http://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/656

With half of the public thinking that the recent Palestinian little
uprising, or habba, has come to an end and with support for stabbing attacks
continuing to decline and Hamas’ popularity slipping, half of the public
supports the French Initiative but only a small percentage expects it to
succeed

2-4 June 2016

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
between 2 and 4 June 2016. The period before the poll witnessed a
significant decline in the number of incidents of confrontations and
stabbings directed against Israelis. But a bombing attack on an Israeli bus
took place in Jerusalem in mid-April. The period also witnessed meetings in
Cairo between Hamas leaders and Egyptian officials and in Doha between Fatah
and Hamas representatives. Data collection took place while the Paris Peace
Conference was in session with the participation of representatives from
more than 20 states. This press release addresses many of these issues and
covers attitudes regarding Palestinian elections, conditions in the West
Bank and the Gaza Strip, reconciliation, Palestinian-Israeli confrontations,
the French Initiative, and other internal and international issues. Total
size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly
selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid
Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Results of the second quarter of 2016 point out to three main findings: (1)
half of the public believes that the current Palestinian confrontations, or
al habba al sha’biyya, has come to an end, support for stabbing attacks
continues to decline, and the public continues to reduce its expectations
from the current confrontations; (2) by contrast, half of the public
expresses support for the French Initiative that aims at providing an
international backing for a revival of the Palestinian-Israeli peace
process, but public expectations of success for the initiative are much
smaller than the support ; and, (3) there is a limited decline in support
for Hamas and its presidential candidate, Ismail Haniyeh, despite continued
demand for Abbas’ resignation from two thirds of the public.

Findings show a continued and significant drop, particularly in the West
Bank, in support for stabbing attacks. The highest percentage of support for
such attacks was registered six months ago before it considerably declined
three months ago. Furthermore, findings show a continued decline in public
expectations regarding a possible escalation of the current limited popular
confrontations to an armed intifada; today, a quarter thinks such a
development is likely. Similarly, findings show a decline, dropping from
more than half to less than a third, in the percentage of those who think
that if the current confrontations continue as they are now, they would
contribute to achieving national rights in ways that negotiations could not.
Decline, particularly in the West Bank, has also been found in the
percentage of those who believe that if the current confrontations develop
into an armed intifada, it would help Palestinians achieve national rights
and in the percentage of those who support ending Palestinian implementation
of PA obligations under the Oslo agreement. Nonetheless, a majority
continues to believe that if the current confrontations develop into an
armed intifada, it will help achieve national rights in ways that
negotiations could not. Perhaps it is for this reason that a majority
continues to support a return to an armed intifada. Indeed, more than two
thirds supported the Jerusalem bus bombing attack which took place in
mid-April and injured 20 Israelis.

If new presidential elections are held today in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip, Hamas’ candidate Ismail Haniyeh would do better than Abbas but
findings show that the gap between the two narrows from eleven to five
percentage points. Marwan Barghouti remains the most popular Palestinian
figure. If new parliamentary elections are held today, Fatah is likely to do
a little better than Hamas. It seems that the declining Palestinian-Israeli
confrontations and the focus on international diplomacy in recent weeks have
influenced the domestic balance of power in a manner that favors Abbas while
somewhat weakening Hamas. Moreover, it is possible that the optimism
regarding improved relations between Egypt and Hamas, which might have
improved Hamas standing in the past, has now somewhat faded as the Rafah
border crossing has remained essentially closed during most of the last
three months. Moreover, a majority is convinced that another Gaza war will
erupt in the near future. On the other hand, Abbas, Fatah and the PA remain
highly vulnerable as two thirds demand Abbas resignation, Fatah has not
gained any additional support during the last three months, and a majority
of Palestinians believes that the PA has become a burden on the Palestinian
people.



(1) The French Initiative:
We asked the public about its support for the French Initiative. The
initiative we presented to respondents as one that “calls for the formation
of an international support group for Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, the
holding of an international peace conference that would seek a settlement
based on the two-state solution and the Arab Peace Initiative in accordance
with a specific time frame.” 50% of the respondents supported and 41%
opposed the initiative. Support reached 46% in the West Bank compared to 56%
in the Gaza Strip.
We also asked respondents to indicate their expectations regarding the
success or failure of the French Initiative in assisting the goal of
reaching Palestinian-Israeli peace. 29% expected success and 59% expected
failure. Here too there was a significant difference between residents of
the West Bank compared to residents of the Gaza Strip: 39% of Gazans,
compared to only 22% of West Bankers, expected success.



(2) Palestinian-Israeli confrontations:
The public is divided into two equal halves regarding the end of the current
popular confrontation, or al habba al sha’biyya: 48% believe it has stopped
and 48% believe it has not stopped. In the West Bank, 49% believe it has
ended and 46% believe it has not.
Support for use of knives in the current confrontations with Israel
continues to decline in this poll, dropping from 58% three months ago to
51%. Support for knifing attacks in the Gaza Strip stands at 75% and in the
West Bank at 36%. Three months ago, support among West Bankers for knifing
attacks stood at 44% and among Gazans at 82%. Nonetheless, support for the
Jerusalem bus bombing attack which took place in mid-April and cause more
than 20 Israeli injuries stands at 65%; only 31% say they oppose this
bombing attack.
25% believe that the current confrontations will develop into a new armed
intifada, 17% believe they will develop into wide scale peaceful popular
confrontations, and 13% believe they will develop in both directions. By
contrast, 29% believe the confrontation will stay as they are now and 13%
believe they will gradually dissipate. Three months ago, 29% said that the
current confrontations will develop into an armed intifada.
In the absence of peace negotiations, 54% support a return to an armed
intifada; 75% support joining more international organizations; 56% support
a popular non-violent resistance; 43% support the dissolution of the PA.
Three months ago, 56% supported return to armed intifada. In the West Bank,
current level of support for an armed intifada stands at 51% (compared to
52% three months ago).
58% of the public (68% in the Gaza Strip and 52% in the West Bank) believe
that if the current confrontations develop into an armed intifada, such a
development would serve Palestinian national interests in ways that
negotiations could not. Three months ago, 65% (75% in the Gaza Strip and 59%
in the West Bank) said that if the current confrontations develop into an
armed intifada, such a development would serve Palestinian national
interests in ways that negotiations could not.
41% of the public (52% in the Gaza Strip and 35% in the West Bank) believe
that if the current confrontations develop into wide scale peaceful popular
confrontations, such a development would serve Palestinian national
interests in ways that negotiations could not. Three months ago, 54% said
that if the current confrontations develop into wide scale peaceful popular
confrontations, such a development would serve Palestinian national
interests in ways that negotiations could not.
32% of the public (41% in the Gaza Strip and 26% in the West Bank) believe
that if the current confrontations stay as they are now, they would serve
Palestinian national interests in ways that negotiations could not. Three
months ago, 43% (54% in the Gaza Strip and 36% in the West Bank) said that
if the current confrontations stay as they are now, such a development would
serve Palestinian national interests in ways that negotiations could not.
When comparing the level of support of various parties for the current
confrontations, Hamas comes on top with 66% of the public believing that it
supports them, followed by Fatah (49%). By contrast, only 26% say president
Abbas supports the confrontations.



(3) The future of the Oslo agreement and the future of security
coordination:
56% support and 36% oppose abandoning the Oslo agreement. Three months ago,
63% of the public supported the abandonment of the Oslo agreement and 30%
opposed it. Support for the abandonment of the Oslo agreement stands at 57%
in the West Bank and 55% in the Gaza Strip.
But 67% of the public believe that despite his statement to the contrary,
president Abbas is not serious about abandoning Palestinian Oslo obligations
and only 27% think he is serious. Three months ago, 65% expressed the view
that the president is not serious.
Similarly, we asked the public about its assessment of the seriousness of
the Palestinian leadership regarding its intention to suspend security
coordination with Israel in light of the Israeli announcement that the IDF
will not stop its incursions into Palestinian cities. More than two-thirds
(68%) indicated that the PA leadership is not serious while only 27%
indicated it believes the PA leadership is serious.
We told the public that a Palestinian abandonment of the Oslo agreement
might lead to one of two outcomes: the collapse of the Palestinian authority
and the return of the Israeli “civil administration” or alternatively an
Israeli suspension of its settlement activities and return to serious
negotiations with the Palestinian side. We asked the public what it thought
was the most likely outcome: 46% selected the collapse of the PA while 41%
selected the Israeli suspension of its settlement activities.


(4) Palestinian Elections:
65% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 31% want him to
remain in office. These results are almost identical to those obtained in
our previous poll three months ago. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at
64% in the West Bank and 67% in the Gaza Strip.
If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 30% prefer
to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 22% prefer Ismail Haniyeh;
Rami al Hamdallah receive 6%; Khalid Mishal, and Mustapha Barghouti and
Mohammad Dahlan receive 5% each; and Saeb Erekat and Salam Fayyad receives
2% each.
Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 34%
which is similar to the level of satisfaction we obtained three months ago.
Level of satisfaction with Abbas are identical in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip.
If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated,
Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, the former would receive 48% (compared to
52% three months ago) and the latter 43% (compared to 41% three months ago).
In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 41% of the vote (compared to 44% three
months ago) and Haniyeh receive 49% (compared to 54% three months ago). In
the West Bank Abbas receives 41% (compared to 41% three months ago) and
Haniyeh 47% (compared to 50% three months ago).
If presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti
and Ismail Haniyeh, Abbas would receive 20%, Barghouti 40% and Haniyeh 35%.
If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all
factions, 75% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who
would participate, 31% say they would vote for Hamas and 34% say they would
vote for Fatah, 9% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 26%
are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 33% and Fatah at
34%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 33% (compared to 38%
three months ago) and for Fatah at 35% (compared to 34% three months ago).
In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 29% (compared to 29% three months
ago) and Fatah at 34% (compared to 34% three months ago).



(5) Domestic Conditions:
Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 12% and
positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 25%.
Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 44%. In the
West Bank perception of safety and security stands also at 44%. Three months
ago, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stood at 47% and in
the West Bank at 39%.
Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek to immigrate
to other countries stands at 45%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at
22%. Three months ago 48% of Gazans and 21% of West Bankers said they seek
to emigrate. The largest percentage (40%) of those who seek to emigrate
indicates that the main motivation is search for jobs; 23% say difficult
conditions imposed by Israeli occupation forces them to seek to emigrate;
12% say it is the lack of security and 9% say it is the lack of freedoms and
democracy that push them out.
In an open-ended question, we asked the public about its viewership habits
in the last two months. Findings indicate that Al-Jazeera TV viewership is
the highest, standing at 19%, followed by Hamas’ al Aqsa Palestine TV at
18%, Palestine TV and Maan-Mix at 17% each, Palestine Today (Filasteen al
Youm) at 7%, Al Arabiya at 6%, al Quds TV at 4%, and al Mayadeen at 2%.
Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 80%.
17% say there is press freedom in the West Bank and 16% say the same about
the status of the press in the Gaza Strip.
31% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the
PA authority in the West Bank without fear.
A majority of 52% view the Palestinian Authority as a burden on the
Palestinians while only 41% view it as an asset.
An overwhelming majority of 76% indicates that it does not agree with the
decision apparently taken by the PA president to withhold financial support
from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic
Front for the Liberation of Palestine; only 16% agree with that decision.

(6) Reconciliation and the reconciliation government, and the possibility of
another Gaza war:
Optimism about the success of reconciliation and the end of the split stands
today at 36% and pessimism at 60%. Three months ago optimism stood at 38%
and pessimism at 59%.
28% say they are satisfied and 63% say they are dissatisfied with the
performance of the reconciliation government. In the Gaza Strip,
dissatisfaction stands at 66% and in the West Bank at 62%.
Belief that Hamas was responsible for hindering the functioning of the
reconciliation government does not exceed 19% (11% in the West Bank and 32%
in the Gaza Strip) while 35% believe that the PA and president Abbas were to
blame for that and 15% blame the prime minister of the reconciliation
government.
71% believe that the reconciliation government should be responsible for
paying the salaries of the Gazan civil public sector that used to work for
the previous Hamas government. A similar percentage (69%) believes that the
reconciliation government is also responsible for paying the salaries of the
Gaza police and security personnel who used to work for the previous Hamas
government.
In return, 65% want the reconciliation government, not Hamas, to be in
charge of the Gaza police force and security personnel who used to work for
the previous Hamas government; only 26% believe Hamas should be the one in
charge. Similarly, 75% support the unification of the police forces in the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip, including those who used to work for the
pervious Hamas government, under the full command and control of the
reconciliation government. But 21% prefer to maintain the current status quo
in the Gaza Strip, i.e., continued Hamas control of the police in the Gaza
Strip.
We asked the public if it believes that there might be a real chance to open
the Rafah Crossing on a normal regular schedule now after the meetings in
Cairo between Hamas and the Egyptian officials and in light of the Doha
meetings between Fatah and Hamas officials. 55% said there is a chance for
that and 39% said there was no real chance for that.
In light of recent talk about a possible Gaza war, we asked the public about
its expectations: 55% said the prospects for such war in the near future are
high or very high and 40% said the prospects are low or very low. A majority
of 57% of Gazans believe the prospects for war are high or very high.



(7) The Arab World, war in Syria, ISIS, and US elections:
78% say the Arab World is too preoccupied with its own concerns, internal
conflicts, and the conflict with Iran and that Palestine is no longer the
Arab’s principal or primary issue or cause. Only 20% think Palestine remains
the Arab’s principle cause.
59% believe that there is an Arab Sunni alliance with Israel against Iran
despite the continued Israeli occupation of Arab land while 30% believe that
the Arabs would not ally themselves with Israel until it ends its occupation
and allows the creation of a Palestinian state.
In light of the escalating conflict in Syria and the emergence of three main
parties to the conflict, we asked the public for its view on the party it
views as the more preferable or the one it views as the least harmful. The
largest percentage (40%) chose the Free Syrian army, 18% chose Bashar Asad
and his army, and 5% chose the extreme religious opposition, such as ISIS.
23% said they do not like any of the three parties.
An overwhelming majority of 88% believes that ISIS is a radical group that
does not represent true Islam and 8% believe it does represent true Islam.
4% are not sure or do not know. In the Gaza Strip, 16% (compared to 3% in
the West Bank) say ISIS represents true Islam.
79% support and 18% oppose the war waged by Arab and Western countries
against ISIS.
We asked the public about the US elections and which presidential candidate,
Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump, it viewed best for the Palestinians. A large
majority (70%) said there is no difference between the two candidates, while
12% said Clinton is better and 7% said Trump is better.



(8) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting
Palestinians today:
45% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end
Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian
state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its
capital. By contrast, 32% believe the first most vital goal should be to
obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 13%
believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a
religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 10% believe
that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic
political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is poverty
and unemployment in the eyes of 38% of the pubic; 31% say it is the
continuation of occupation and settlement activities; 17% say it is the
siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings; and; 10% believe
it is the spread of corruption in public institutions.


Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)
Off Irsal street, P.O.Box 76, Ramallah , Palestine , Tel: +970-2-2964933
Fax:+970-2-2964934
email: pcpsr@pcpsr.org