The Peace Index – June 2016
(N=600 – 500 Jews, 100 Arabs)
28-29/6/2016
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=306

1: What is your position on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
Strongly in favor 21.8/76.4/30.9
Moderately in favor 36.5/7.4/31.7
Moderately opposed 21.8/1.4/18.4
Strongly opposed 17.1/10.3/16.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 2.8/4.4/3.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

2: Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead in the coming years to peace between Israel
and the Palestinians?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
Strongly believe 4.6/22.0/7.5
Moderately believe 15.5/22.3/16.6
Moderately do not believe 37.2/12.5/33.1
Do not believe at all 41.0/39.3/40.7
Don’t know/Decline to answer 1.7/4.0/2.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

3: In your opinion, is the following sentence true or not true: the Green
Line is the Israeli border that was set in the Armistice Agreements that
were signed at the end of the War of Independence between Israel and the
Arab armies in 1949?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I’m sure it’s true 14.8/41.6/19.3
I think it’s true 33.1/21.0/31.0
I think it’s not true 20.2/9.4/18.4
I’m sure it’s not true 18.5/21.9/19.1
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.4/6.1/12.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

4: In this month (June), the fiftieth year since the Six Day War began. In
your opinion, have the developments in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria since
the Six Day War improved or worsened Israel’s military-security situation?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I’m sure they have improved it 14.0/35.0/17.5
I think they have improved it 29.7/12.6/26.8
I think they have worsened it 29.6/19.6/28.0
I’m sure they have worsened it 13.5//29.4/16.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.2 3.4/11.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

5: And how have these developments affected its diplomatic situation?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I’m sure they have improved it 7.5/23.9/10.2
I think they have improved it 21.7/12.8/20.3
I think they have worsened it 42.5/16.8/38.2
I’m sure they have worsened it 14.9/40.5/19.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.4/6.1/12.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

6: Sometime after the Six Day War the settlement enterprise began to
develop. In your opinion, from a perspective of 50 years later, has the
settlement enterprise contributed to or damaged Israel’s national interest?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I’m sure it has damaged it 11.3/42.9/16.6
I think it has damaged it 28.0/10.9/25.2
I think it has contributed to it 24.6/16.2/23.2
I’m sure it has contributed to it 27.0/24.8/26.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 9.1/5.3/8.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

7: Some claim that over the years Israeli governments have invested many
resources and monies in developing the Jewish settlements and
infrastructures in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, and previously also in
Gaza, at the expense of other areas and populations in Israel that are
disadvantaged and would have needed these resources and budgets. Others
claim that there is no connection between the two because one does not come
at the expense of the other. With which claim do you agree?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I agree more with the first claim that the economic investments in the
territories over the years have reduced different Israeli governments’
capacity to invest sufficient resources in solving economic and social
problems within Israel 45.3/65.7/48.7
I agree more with the second claim that there is no connection between the
two. The lack of investment in solving these problems did not stem from the
investment in Jewish settlements and infrastructures in the territories
48.8/23.9/44.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 6.0/10.4/6.7
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

8: Do you or members of your family live in a Jewish settlement in the
territories/Judea and Samaria? (For Jews only)
% Jews
Yes, I do 4.1
Yes, I have family living there 14.7
No 81.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.1
Total 100.0



9: Have you visited or traveled in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria during
the past five years? (For all of the Arabs; for Jews who do not live in the
territories)
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I have not visited it or traveled in it 52.3/35.8/49.5
Yes, I have visited it or traveled in it a few times 32.7/29.8/32.2
Yes, I have visited it or traveled in it many times 13.5/34.4/17.1
Don’t know/Decline to answer 1.5/0/1.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

10: As far as you know, how many Jews now live in the West Bank/Judea and
Samaria (not counting the neighborhoods of expanded Jerusalem such as Gilo
or Pisgat Ze’ev)?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
100,000-250,000 27.0/17.0/25.4
250,000-500,000 29.9/39.0/31.4
500,000-750,000 12.9/11.5/12.7
750,000-1,000,000 3.1/5.5 3.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 27.0/27.1/27.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

11: And how many Palestinians (not counting East Jerusalem)?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
Half a million to a million 23.8/10.6/21.6
A million to two million 35.9/35.2/35.8
Two million to three million 10.1/17.2/11.3
More than three million 3.0/18.5/5.5
Don’t know/Decline to answer 27.2/18.4/25.8
Total 100.0 100.0/100.0

12: In your opinion, what will happen if Israeli rule over the West
Bank/Judea and Samaria continues over time?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
The situation will remain as it is 37.5/45.1/38.7
The international community will force Israel to withdraw to the 1967
borders 19.9/22.8/20.4
Israel will annex the West Bank/Judea and Samaria and equal rights will be
given to the Palestinians and the Israelis 9.1 9.1/9.1
Israel will annex the West Bank/Judea and Samaria but the Palestinians will
not be given rights equal to those of the Israelis 19.8/14.7/19.0
Don’t know/Decline to answer 13.7/8.3/12.8
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

13: Which of these four possibilities is preferable in your eyes?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
The situation will remain as it is 22.7/32.6/24.3
The international community will force Israel to withdraw to the 1967
borders 11.6/34.4/15.4
Israel will annex the West Bank/Judea and Samaria and equal rights will be
given to the Palestinians and the Israelis 19.2/26.0/20.3
Israel will annex the West Bank/Judea and Samaria but the Palestinians will
not be given rights equal to those of the Israelis 32.0/2.9/27.2
Don’t know/Decline to answer 14.5/4.1/12.8
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

14: Last week the residents of Britain voted in a referendum on whether to
remain in or leave the European Union. They decided to leave. If a
referendum were to be held in Israel today on whether, in principle, it is
desirable to remain, as at present, in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria or to
leave it, how would you vote?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
In favor of leaving the West Bank/Judea and Samaria (except for the large
settlement blocs) 35.8/69.2/41.3
Against 52.4/23.7/47.6
Don’t know/Decline to answer 11.8/7.2/11.1
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

15: And if in the future there is progress in talks with the Palestinians
and a draft of a peace agreement is reached that is acceptable to the
Israeli government, in your opinion, in such a case will it be desirable or
not desirable to hold a referendum in Israel on whether to remain in the
West Bank/Judea and Samaria or to leave it while retaining the large
settlement blocs?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
I’m sure it will be desirable 21.8/64.8/29.0
I think it will be desirable 37.4/8.4/32.6
I think it will not be desirable 21.0/2.6/17.9
I’m sure it will not be desirable 11.6/15.8/12.3
Don’t know/Decline to answer 8.2/8.4/8.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

16: And how would you vote in such a referendum if a draft of a peace
agreement with the Palestinians were on the table?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
In favor of leaving the West Bank/Judea and Samaria (except for the large
settlement blocs) 43.4/76.1/48.9
Against 45.8/14.6/40.7
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.7/9.3/10.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0


17: And if such a referendum is held, who should participate in it? (For
Jews only)
% Jews
All the citizens of the country 50.9
Only the Jewish citizens of the country 44.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 4.6
Total 100.0

18: If Britain indeed leaves the European Union, how, in your opinion, will
this affect the EU’s intention to pressure Israel on the Palestinian issue?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
It won’t affect it one way or the other 47.7/65.2/50.6
It will strengthen the EU’s intention to pressure Israel 17.2/13.6/16.6
It will weaken the EU’s intention to pressure Israel 11.4/8.0/10.8
Don’t know/Decline to answer 23.8/13.2/22.0
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

19: Who, in your opinion, will gain more from the reconciliation agreement
between Israel and Turkey?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
Israel will gain more 7.5/36.8/12.4
Turkey will gain more 38.1/11.5/33.7
Both sides will gain to the same extent 43.0/49.4/44.1
Neither side will gain 5.4/0.8/4.7
Don’t know/Decline to answer 5.9/1.5/5.2
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0


20: The families of the missing casualties Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin and
of the civilian Avraham Mengistu, who is being held by Hamas in Gaza, are
demanding that the reconciliation agreement with Turkey not be signed until
Hamas returns the bodies and frees Mengistu. Others claim that the agreement
with Turkey should be signed as soon as possible because it is an important
strategic interest for Israel, and that the issue of returning the bodies
and Mengistu should be dealt with later in the framework of the agreement.
With which position do you agree more?
Jews%/ Arabs%/ General Public%
With the position of the families that signing the reconciliation agreement
with Turkey should be postponed until the bodies are returned and Mengistu
is freed 49.2/42.4/48.1
With the position that the agreement should be signed as soon as possible
because it is an important strategic interest for Israel and the issue of
returning the bodies and Mengistu should be dealt with later in the
framework of the agreement 39.8/37.2/39.4
Don’t know/Decline to answer 10.9/20.3/12.5
Total 100.0/100.0/100.0

The Peace Index: June 2016
Date Published: 04/07/2016
Survey dates: 28/06/2016 - 29/06/2016

Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

With the fiftieth anniversary of the Six Day War approaching, this month the
Peace Index survey mostly explored the public’s positions on the war’s
ramifications for the situation today and in the future. In light of the
recent referendum in Britain, we also looked into the public’s views on a
possible referendum in Israel on the future of the territories, along with
their preferences were such a referendum to be conducted. In addition, we
inquired into what the public thinks of the agreement between Israel and
Turkey.

The impact on Israel’s situation of the developments since the Six Day War:
Both the Jewish public and the Arab public are divided, in very similar
proportions, between those who think the developments in the territories
have improved Israel’s security situation and those who believe they have
worsened it (Jews: improved—44%, worsened—43%; Arabs: improved—48%,
worsened—49%). As for the diplomatic situation, a majority (57%) in both the
Jewish public and the Arab public sees the developments in the West
Bank/Judea and Samaria as having worsened Israel’s situation.

The settlements and the national interest: We opened with a general
question: “Sometime after the Six Day War the settlement enterprise began to
develop. In your opinion, from a perspective of 50 years later, has the
settlement enterprise contributed to or damaged Israel’s national interest?”
We found that a majority (52%) of the Jewish public thinks the settlement
enterprise has contributed to the national interest. More concretely, we
gauged the public’s views on how the investment in the settlements has
affected the national resource allocation. We asked: “Some claim that over
the years Israeli governments have invested many resources and monies in
developing the Jewish settlements and infrastructures in the West Bank/Judea
and Samaria, and previously also in Gaza, at the expense of other areas and
populations in Israel that are disadvantaged and would have needed these
resources and budgets. Others claim that there is no connection between the
two because one does not come at the expense of the other. With which claim
do you agree?” Here the Jewish public is divided, with a slight advantage
for those who say there is no connection between investments in the
territories and the lack of resources for socioeconomic problems besetting
deprived areas and disadvantaged populations. (The investment in the
territories comes at the expense of budgets for deprived areas and
disadvantaged populations—45%; there is no connection between the two—49%.)
In the Arab public, a two-thirds majority considers that the investments in
the territories have detracted from investments in deprived areas and
disadvantaged populations.

We wanted to know how much the Israeli public is factually aware of the
situation in the territories:

What is the Green Line? We asked: “In your opinion, is the following
sentence true or not true: the Green Line is the Israeli border that was set
in the Armistice Agreements that were signed at the end of the War of
Independence between Israel and the Arab armies in 1949.” The responses show
that a bit less than half of the Jewish public are sure (15%) or think (33%)
that this definition is right, while 39% are sure or think that it is not
(13% did not know or declined to answer). That is, only a very small
minority of the Jewish public now knows for certain what the Green Line is!
However, it turned out that a clear majority (63%) of the Arab interviewees
knew what the Green Line is, of whom 42% were sure of it.

What is the size of the Jewish population and of the Palestinian population
in the territories? A majority of the Jewish public also does not know for
sure the size of the Jewish or of the Palestinian population in the West
Bank/Judea and Samaria. We asked how many Jews live in these territories
(not counting the neighborhoods of expanded Jerusalem such as Gilo or Pisgat
Ze’ev). About one-fourth gave an underestimation of 100,000-250,000, 30%
answered correctly that the number is 250,000-500,000, 13% gave an
overestimation of 500,000-750,000, 3% thought the correct number was 750,000
to a million, and about one-fourth did not know at all. Regarding the
Palestinian population (not counting Jerusalem), the estimates were:
24%—half a million to a million, 36%—one to two million, only 10%—two
million to three million (the accepted evaluation in Israel), 3%—over three
million. The rest (again 27%) did not know. That is, the Jewish public
underestimates the size of the Palestinian population in the territories. It
turns out, then, that the Jewish public’s assessments of the current
situation in the territories, and of what will happen in the future, are
based to a large extent on a lack of knowledge of the facts and on incorrect
estimates of the relative sizes of the populations there.

This lack of knowledge is linked with a very high rate of Jewish Israelis
who have not stepped foot in the territories in recent years.

Frequency of visits/trips in the territories: Among those who answered that
they do not live in the territories and do not have family members there,
52% responded that they had not visited or taken a trip in the West
Bank/Judea and Samaria during the last five years. Thirty-three percent said
they had visited or taken a trip there once in a while, while only 13.5%
responded that they had visited or taken a trip there frequently.

From there we moved on to the future, first of all regarding the recent
referendum in Britain as an example of a country’s fateful decision that was
left to the public to make.

Would it be desirable to hold a referendum on the issue of leaving the
territories?
A majority of the Jews (59%) and an even larger majority of the Arabs (73%)
would favor holding a referendum on the issue of leaving the territories if,
in the future, there were to be progress in talks with the Palestinians
leading to a draft peace agreement that would be acceptable to the Israeli
government.

Voting if a referendum were to be held in Israel today on the question of
leaving the territories: We asked: “If a referendum were to be held in
Israel today on whether, in principle, it is desirable to remain, as at
present, in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria or to leave it while retaining
the large settlement blocs, how would you vote?” A majority (52%) of the
Jewish interviewees reported that in the existing situation they would vote
against a withdrawal, while 36% answered that they would vote in favor.
Among the Arabs a majority (69%) said that if a referendum were to be held
today, they would vote in favor of leaving the territories while retaining
the large settlement blocs.

Voting if there were to be a referendum based on a draft peace agreement: A
slightly different distribution, almost even, would emerge if the Jewish
public were to vote in a referendum in a situation where a draft agreement
with the Palestinians was on the table. At present, 46% say they would vote
against a withdrawal from the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, whereas 43% say
they would vote in favor. Among the Arabs, the rate of voters favoring a
withdrawal would exceed three-fourths.

Who would be entitled to participate in a referendum on the future of the
territories? In a democratic country all citizens are entitled to
participate in a referendum. However, only about half of the Jewish public
(51%) thinks that in such a referendum, if it were to be held, all the
citizens of the country would be entitled to participate. A large minority
(44%) believe that only the Jewish citizens of the country would be entitled
to participate in it.

Will Britain’s exit from the EU affect the EU’s policy? On how the British
referendum will affect the EU’s intention to pressure Israel on the
Palestinian issue, close to half of the public (48%) considers that Britain’s
exit from the EU, or Brexit, will not have an effect one way or the other,
17% think Brexit will strengthen the EU’s intention to pressure Israel, 11%
believe it will weaken it, and 24% do not know. Among the Arabs a clear
majority (65%) thinks that the situation regarding pressure on Israel will
not change if Britain leaves the EU.

And what is the likely situation in the territories in the future? The
prevailing view among the Jewish public (37.5%) is that the situation will
continue as it is. Twenty percent hold the view that the international
community will force Israel to withdraw to the 1967 borders. An identical
rate thinks Israel will annex the territories without giving the
Palestinians equal rights to those of the Israelis, and 9% anticipate that
Israel will annex the territories and grant equal rights to the
Palestinians. In the Arab public the most common assessment (45%) is that
the situation will remain as it is.

And what is the desirable situation in the territories in the future? Here
23% of the Jewish public prefers that the situation should remain as it is,
12% prefer the intervention of the international community, 32% prefer
annexation without giving equal rights to the Palestinians, and 19% prefer
annexation that includes the granting of equal rights. In other words, a
majority of the Jewish public (55%) prefers continued Israeli rule over the
Palestinians, whether it means sustaining the existing situation or
annexation without giving equal rights to the Palestinians. Only few support
a return to the 1967 borders or a one-state solution in which equal rights
are given to Israelis and Palestinians. The most common preference in the
Arab public is that the international community should force Israel to
withdraw (34%), followed immediately by the preference that the situation
should remain as it is (33%). Naturally, only very few (3%) would like to
see an annexation without the giving of equal rights to the Palestinians;
neither, though, is there any great desire (only 26%) for a one-state
solution with equal rights for Jews and Palestinians.

The agreement with Turkey: Before the agreement was signed, the prevailing
view in the Jewish public (43%) was that Israel and Turkey would gain to the
same extent from the reconciliation agreement between them. Thirty-eight
percent think Turkey will gain more from it, while 7.5% see Israel as the
one that will gain more. The rest think neither country will gain from the
agreement or do not know. We also asked in this context: “The families of
the missing casualties Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin and of the civilian Avera
Mengistu, who is being held by Hamas in Gaza, are demanding that the
reconciliation agreement with Turkey not be signed until Hamas returns the
bodies and frees Mengistu. Others claim that the agreement with Turkey
should be signed as soon as possible because it is an important strategic
interest for Israel, and that the issue of returning the bodies and Mengistu
should be dealt with later in the framework of the agreement. With which
position do you agree more?” On the eve of the agreement, 49% supported the
families’ demand to delay the signing while 40% opposed it.

Negotiations Index: 45.1 (Jews: 41.4)


The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program for Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Guttman Center for Surveys of the
Israel Democracy Institute. This month's survey was conducted by telephone
on June 28-29, 2016, by the Midgam Research Institute. The survey included
600 respondents (500 Jews, 100 Arabs), who constitute a representative
national sample of the entire adult population of Israel aged 18 and over.
The maximum measurement error for the entire sample is ±4.1% at a confidence
level of 95%. Statistical processing was done by Ms. Yasmin Alkalay.
http://www.peaceindex.org