Weekly Commentary: Breaking The Budget For Interceptors Can't Offset "Quiet
For Quiet" Gaza Missile Gains
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 August 2018

Can Israeli taxpayers plunk down enough money on Iron Domes to offset the
inevitable Gaza rocket building boom that will result from continuing "quiet
for quiet"?

Those interceptors were specifically cited in the publicly released
information on Prime Minister Netanyahu's plans to dramatically increase
defense spending.

It won't work.

Quiet for quiet allows our enemies in Gaza to not only produce as many
missiles as they want.

"Quiet for quiet" allows the Gaza missile R&D teams to openly test fire
missies towards the sea as they work on improving distance and accuracy.

A key feature of Iron Dome is that it only launches interceptors when it
expects the enemy projectile to land in an urban area.

Israeli projections consistently underestimated improvements in enemy Gaza
missile accuracy.

In each round of conflict we found ourselves having to launch considerably
more interceptors per hundred incoming missiles than we anticipated.

Recently we began using the Iron Dome system to even intercept mortar
shells.

We should be honest with ourselves.

If we want to give the Gazans more time to prepare to attack us we cannot
possibly deploy enough interceptors to shield the Israeli civilian
population from the consequences.

In the end most civilians will find themselves being advised that their
safety is secure as long as they follow instructions to take shelter before
the missiles start slamming into their neighborhood.

Don't get me wrong. There are strategic targets that require the protection
of the Iron Dome and other systems. And there's every reason in the world
to have enough systems to protect them.

But at the same time we must be honest with ourselves that kicking the can
down the road with "quiet for quiet" has consequences that pouring money
into interceptors simply cannot offset.

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