Weekly Commentary: Has Netanyahu Cornered Himself?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 November, 2018

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has established a pre-election "do list":

- A huge operation involving Gaza that for reasons that cannot be publicized
has been temporarily postponed but which he promises will be carried out
before elections.

- Successful prevention of the upgrading of Hezbollah's rockets in Lebanon
with guidance kits.

- Evacuation of the illegal Bedouin outpost of Khan al-Ahmar.

The absence of a major Gaza operation or the evacuation of Khan al-Ahmar are
both readily observable.

As for the rocket upgrade, Hezbollah has the option to do a high profile
"demonstration of capabilities" before the polls in Israel open. To be
clear: they don't have to fire a rocket into Israel. Its enough to announce
the location of a target they are going to hit in the middle of nowhere in
Lebanon and then succeed in hitting it.

Don't get me wrong.

If Netanyahu fails to "deliver the goods" its not that his supporters are
going to vote Left.

They will still tell the pollsters who call them on the phone that they are
going to vote Likud.

They may even report that they are absolutely certain that they are voting.

But if enough of them ultimately decide, in light of Mr. Netanyahu's failure
to honor his own "do list", that it really doesn't matter if Netanyahu is or
isn't prime minister, their failure to actually vote could bring the Left
to power.

This when the pre-election polls may predict a solid victory as pollsters
are unable to get a good handle on true intentions of their respondents to
vote (the respondents themselves may only decide on election day!).

Voting in Israel is incredibly easy.

We don't have voter registration. You vote at a polling station assigned to
you based on your current place of residence as per the records of the
Ministry of Interior. You can enter your ID number on a website or via a
telephone call to get the polling station location if you aren't sure. You
go to the polling station with your ID card, are given an envelope, put a
single slip of paper of the party you want to vote for into the envelope and
then put the envelope into a sealed box.

Couldn't be easier.

But you still have to be willing to go to the trouble to walk down the
street and vote.

The "do list" isn't Binyamin Netanyahu's only problem.

There's President Trump's "deal of the century" which may be on the table
before the the elections,

Under regular circumstances one could expect Mr. Netanyahu to address the
"deal" with "constructive ambiguity".

But such ambiguity before election day will only further convince his "base"
to stay home.

Dear Reader.

I share these observations with you not out of concern but rather guarded
optimism.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is fully aware of this problem.

And this problem may drive him to do the right things.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

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