Weekly Commentary: Is Hamas Deterred or Patient?
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 28 May 2015
Here are the facts.
You be the judge.
1. Since the end of the war last summer, Hamas has devoted its
resources – both financial and physical – on preparing to attack the Jewish
2. These resources include building material used for building tunnels
and bunkers instead of repairing homes and other structures for the benefit
of the Gazan civilian population. This at a time that rival groups in Gaza
exploit public dissatisfaction and frustration to draw support away from
3. These preparations include a massive tunneling operation both up to
(and possibly into) Israel as well as inside the Gaza Strip along with many
strategically located bunkers, observation and command and control posts.
There is also a huge network if rocket launching positions configured to
minimize detection. In addition to a very open rocket development and
production operation and active UAV program, Hamas is also pouring resources
into openly training its ever growing army for the day Hamas participates in
the invasion of Israel. And this is just what we see.
4. All of these activities are in compliance with the “quiet for quiet”
arrangement between Hamas and Israel. In point of fact, under “quiet for
quiet” there is literally nothing Hamas is prohibited from doing in
preparation for the next conflict – as long as it doesn’t shoot yet.
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon argues that the fact that Hamas isn’t
shooting today – and in fact arrests the shooters – is proof that Hamas is
But deterred from what?
Deterred from openly preparing to attack Israel? No.
Hamas says that it will pick the time and place to attack the Jewish State.
Maybe the time of their choosing simply hasn’t yet come.
And what Ya’alon interprets as deterrence is nothing more than patience.
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