Content preview: Weekly Commentary: I Got It Right And Fear Those Who Screwed
Up On Gaza Are Repeating The Error For Lebanon Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 October
2023 I am not pointing out that I have written countless CORRECT commentaries
warning about what was to come to gloat.

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Weekly Commentary: I Got It Right And Fear Those Who Screwed Up On Gaza Are
Repeating The Error For Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 October 2023

I am not pointing out that I have written countless CORRECT commentaries
warning about what was to come to gloat.

I am only noting this out of the fervent hope that what I am writing now may
get more weight because of that.

Because it seems that those who screwed up on Gaza are repeating the same
mistake with regards to Hezbollah.

And in the case of Hezbollah what apparently is the approach (not launching
the massive attacks to destroy their long range rockets and missiles) is a
mistake regardless of if Hezbollah intends to seriously enter the fray or
not.

Scenario #1 Hezbollah intends to seriously enter the fray

Since Saturday Hezbollah has engaged in a series of operations of various
natures.

Analysts have bent over backwards to frame these operations as something
other than preparations for a huge operation which could include:

- Launching hundreds of thousands of rockets and missiles – many of them
guided missiles to destroy critical Israeli infrastructure.

- A massive invasion of well trained Hezbollah soldiers with years of combat
experience to not only plant the flag for photo ops (or slaughter Israelis)
but to even hold territory and hostages long enough that there is a cease
fire with sovereign Israeli territory held by Hezbollah for the foreseeable
future.

This is, after all what they SAY they intend to do.

I also thought that Iran wants to keep Hezbollah's hundreds of thousands of
rockets and missiles intact to deter Israel from attacking Iran.

But the developments in the North in the last days are consistent with an
intention to carefully map out our command and control and responses in
order to fine tune their massive attack in the coming days.

If this is the case then it is time NOW to pull that multi-billion dollar
operation folder off the shelf and destroy Hezbollah's long range rockets
and missiles.

Scenario #2 Hezbollah does not intend to seriously enter the fray

Again, Hezbollah's hundreds of thousands of rockets and missiles deter
Israel from attacking Iran.

This war presents a one time opportunity to destroy them at a time that an
unprecedented American force, the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group,
sits off of our coast.

No. I am not suggesting that those jets on the supercarrier participate in
the operation.

There are only Israeli pilots in the multi-billion dollar operation which we
have been working on for so many years.

But having a powerful friend off our coast dramatically reduces our exposure
to a response outside of Lebanon from Iran and elsewhere to the operation.

Either way, it is time to turn the disaster we suffered in the South into
something which concludes in multiple achievements which make critical
contributions to the future of the Jewish State both with the end of the
terrorists in Gaza and the long range rocket and missile threat from the
North.

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