Weekly Commentary: Is US Guaranty of Israeli Defeat Sufficient For Hamas?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 4 May 2024

In response to Arab reports that the United States would guaranty Israel's
defeat to Hamas as part of the deal for the hostage release Prime Minister
Netanyahu's team repeatedly issued denials to the Israeli media that Israel
would not accept ending the war without defeating Hamas.

Netanyahu also refused to send a negotiating team to possibly be witness to
the head of the CIA promising Hamas that the USA would force Israel to
accept defeat (AKA permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal of Israeli
forces from Gaza).

If the Arab reports are true, this would reflect an American assessment that
Netanyahu could be cornered to ultimately honor such a guarantee, with
Netanyahu claiming that in return for accepting defeat that America promised
to actually join Israel to fight Iran.

It would certainly not be the first time that Mr. Netanyahu whispers "Iran"
to key people and selected talking heads to justify a decision.

I've lost a lot of sleep this week fearing this very scenario.

It is noteworthy that the possibility of Netanyahu facing a very furious and vengeful newly
elected President Trump next January if Netanyahu goes along with such a
deal makes this scenario considerably more complicated.

Which is why Prime Minister Netanyahu's handling of the American initiative
- at least as of 10:38 PM Saturday night - is encouraging.

The host of the Reshet Bet Radio news program was furious tonight that
Netanyahu's team repeatedly said Israel wouldn't accept defeat, since
rejecting defeat could kill the deal.

I hope she is right.

As we approach Independence Day we are hopefully continuing with this stage
of our War of Independence.

Secretary of State Blinken complains that we haven't shared the details of
the evacuation plans.

Given the tendency of the Americans to share information with the media, it
is hardly a surprise that we aren't telling him exactly which neighborhood
we are going to evacuate on a particular date or which specific location
from the prepared evacuation locations each neighborhood is going to be
moved to.

We don't want an American leak to give Hamas time to deploy their forces to
turn the evacuations into a photo op of bloodbaths.


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