Weekly Commentary: Leaders Must Explicitly Restore Balance - Hostage Driven Distortion Disaster Now
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 August 2025

"…30. It is important to note that if the social ethos were indeed such that the majority of the public believed that it was right to pay any price to release a kidnapped soldier, this would raise a significant question mark regarding Israel's ability to survive in the area in which it is located.
Chapter Fifteen • Kidnappings as a Strategic Threat
Committee to Examine the Events of the 2006 Lebanon Campaign - Winograd Commission - Second Lebanon War - Final Report Volume I
Shevat 5768 January 2008

When the Winograd Commission made this warning almost 17 years ago, the "price" our enemies charged for releasing hostages was the release of terrorists.

Today the "cost" embraced by well-meaning but profoundly shortsighted "deal at any cost" Israelis is to provide Hamas the opportunity, from Gaza, to serve as the bridgehead in an apocalyptic war involving forces and nations who identities we are unable to accurately predict today.

My best guess is that the Israelis striking next week won't have the power, despite the heavy media support, to give Hamas a victory.

But I fear that they may succeed, given the orientation of the IDF COS, to impact how our war against Hamas continues, in ways that will cost us dearly.

In anticipation of IDF rules of engagement geared to rule out the possibility of wounding hostages, Hamas has prepared traps and developed methods of operation which will kill and wound many hundreds - if not more -of our soldiers in Gaza.

Don't be surprised to find fresh hostages taken thanks to our handicapped rules of engagement.

And its not just our casualties.

Instead of a brutally quick end to the Gaza war we could readily find ourselves creeping along at a pace which loses President Trump's support for the endeavor.

This week Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that the elected government - not the military - sets policy.

I hope and pray that Mr. Netanyahu has the will to set the policy that our soldiers, and their victory, has top priority.
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Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

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