Weekly Commentary: If Iran Changes, Israel Must Move First - Israel Cheapest Route For Crude To Europe

Dr. Aaron Lerner 31 January 2026

The U.S. Energy Administration (Country Analysis Brief: Iran) estimates that Iran's crude oil production could increase to 3.8 million barrels per day (b/d) within six months after the sanction have been lifted. Assuming that China increases its imports of Iranian crude to the 1984 an average of 1.5 million b/d this leaves 2.5 million b/d for other markets.

The Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Co., now Europe-Asia Pipeline Co. (EAPC), at partial capacity, could handle meaningful volumes quickly (e.g., ramping to 200,000-400,000 bpd within 1-2 years), providing Iran revenue while full integrity repairs to the pipeline (potentially 3-5 years) proceed to reach a conservatively rated capacity of 600,000 b/d.

It is a considerably cheaper way for Iranian crude to reach Europe than through the Suez Canal with the added advantage that the supertankers too big for the Suez Canal can easily dock in Eilat.

So if there's a regime change, we Israelis can come to the table with offering a substantial economic benefit to collaboration (yes, we would have to balance this with the MOU we have with the UAE for using the pipeline).

A post-regime-change Iran would seek international legitimacy, there is no clearer signal than full diplomatic normalization with Israel.

Such a move would demonstrate to Washington, Europe, and the region that Iran has exited the revolutionary framework that has defined Middle Eastern politics for a generation.

And by becoming a route for post-sanction Iranian crude to Europe, Israel won't find itself in the back seat when Turkey offers Iran considerably more expensive access to European markets,

This may sound like a pipe-dream today.

But things can move quickly.

And we must be ready to jump at the opportunity.

Israel’s task is therefore clear: be positioned to move early, normalize decisively, and shape the regional landscape before defaults harden and leverage shifts beyond Israel’s ability to influence developments.

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